sábado, outubro 28, 2017

"Once escalation takes hold ..."

Deve ter sido isto que aconteceu recentemente com a entrada do Estado no capital do SIRESP:
"Once escalation takes hold, it can be difficult to reverse, but you can reduce the chances of falling into that trap.
...
Escalation of commitment is deeply rooted in the human brain. In a classic experiment, two groups of participants were asked whether they would be willing to invest $1 million to develop a stealth bomber. The first group was asked to assume that the project had not yet been launched and that a rival company had already developed a successful (and superior) product. Unsurprisingly, only 16.7% of those participants opted to commit to the funding.
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The second group was asked to assume that the project was already 90% complete. Its members, too, were told that a competitor had developed a superior product. This time 85% opted to commit the resources to complete the project.
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These results underscore the fact that people tend to stick to an existing course of action, no matter how irrational. The project’s likely outcome was identical for both groups. Because a competitor had beaten the company to the market with a superior product, the new product was almost bound to fail. The only difference between the two situations was the timing of the question: before commitment to the project versus when it was nearing completion."
Cuidado com a relação entre humanos e custos afundados. Boa para manter os laços na tribo, má para a racionalidade das decisões de gestão.

Trechos retirados de "Stop Doubling Down on Your Failing Strategy"

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