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Mostrar mensagens com a etiqueta alemanha. Mostrar todas as mensagens
Mostrar mensagens com a etiqueta alemanha. Mostrar todas as mensagens
quarta-feira, junho 30, 2010
terça-feira, junho 29, 2010
Somos todos alemães (parte VI)
Esta é uma afirmação antiga neste blogue, basta recordar "Somos todos alemães (parte V)"
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Sintomático que Merkel hoje a tenha repetido "«Princípios da economia alemã devem ser seguidos por todos»"
sexta-feira, junho 25, 2010
O jogo do gato e do rato (parte IV)
Um autêntico "The Itchy & Scratchy Show"
Admitamos que metade dos ganhos de produtividade vai para aumento de salários. Como os salários são um custo fixo, entram como um aumento dos custos na equação da produtividade.
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Voltemos à equação da produtividade:
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Em que custos podemos mexer?
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Ou nos custos fixos ou nos custos variáveis.
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Podemos também tentar aumentar o volume de produção.
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OK!
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Se reduzirmos os custos fixos em 1% que retorno é que obtemos a nível de lucro operacional? Um aumento de 2,3%!
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Se reduzirmos os custos variáveis em 1% que retorno é que obtemos a nível de lucro operacional? Um aumento de 7,8%!
Se aumentarmos o volume produzido que retorno é que obtemos a nível de lucro operacional? Um aumento de 3,3%!
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Valores retirados daqui.
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Comparemos estes ganhos de produtividade com aquele trecho de Daniel Gros:
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“But improvements in productivity are easily overwhelmed by changes in wages. While productivity growth usually is measured in fractions of a percentage point, wage increases have been much larger.”
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Há um artigo de James March que aborda o jogo, o equilíbrio, que as empresas têm de fazer entre a ‘exploration’ e a ‘exploitation’. Uma empresa que só trabalha no denominador da equação da produtividade só confia na ‘exploitation’ (arrisca-se a que mais tarde ou mais cedo alguém mexa no seu queijo!).
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Admitamos, então, que uma empresa num ano consegue, à custa do trabalho no denominador, aumentar a sua produtividade em 2,6%.
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O que vai acontecer?
Voltemos à equação da produtividade:
Vamos, por momentos, admitir que não se pode mexer no numerador, na criação de valor. Assim, só há uma forma de aumentar a produtividade: reduzindo os custos.
Em que custos podemos mexer?
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Ou nos custos fixos ou nos custos variáveis.
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Podemos também tentar aumentar o volume de produção.
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OK!
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Se reduzirmos os custos fixos em 1% que retorno é que obtemos a nível de lucro operacional? Um aumento de 2,3%!
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Se reduzirmos os custos variáveis em 1% que retorno é que obtemos a nível de lucro operacional? Um aumento de 7,8%!
Se aumentarmos o volume produzido que retorno é que obtemos a nível de lucro operacional? Um aumento de 3,3%!
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Valores retirados daqui.
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Comparemos estes ganhos de produtividade com aquele trecho de Daniel Gros:
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“But improvements in productivity are easily overwhelmed by changes in wages. While productivity growth usually is measured in fractions of a percentage point, wage increases have been much larger.”
.
Há um artigo de James March que aborda o jogo, o equilíbrio, que as empresas têm de fazer entre a ‘exploration’ e a ‘exploitation’. Uma empresa que só trabalha no denominador da equação da produtividade só confia na ‘exploitation’ (arrisca-se a que mais tarde ou mais cedo alguém mexa no seu queijo!).
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Admitamos, então, que uma empresa num ano consegue, à custa do trabalho no denominador, aumentar a sua produtividade em 2,6%.
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O que vai acontecer?
Admitamos que metade dos ganhos de produtividade vai para aumento de salários. Como os salários são um custo fixo, entram como um aumento dos custos na equação da produtividade. .
Logo, um aumento dos salários contribui para a redução da competitividade (argumento do ministro e de Daniel Gros e esta é a essência do jogo do gato e do rato da produtividade conseguida à custa do denominador.
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Como é que os custos unitários de trabalho na Alemanha baixaram 20%? Como foi possível conseguir esse diferencial?
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Será que os alemães em massa viram os seus salários cortados sem mais nem menos?
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Continua.
quinta-feira, junho 24, 2010
O jogo do gato e do rato (parte III)
Comecemos pela leitura do artigo “Europe’s Competitiveness Obsession” de Daniel Gros publicado a 4 de Junho de 2010.
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Salientemos agora alguns trechos que me chamaram a atenção:
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“The President of the European Central Bank is said to show at each meeting of the European Council a graph depicting the evolution of relative wage costs across the eurozone’s 16 member countries. This chart shows increasing divergences over the last ten years, with the countries now facing difficulties (Greece, Portugal, and Spain) having lost competitiveness by around 20% relative to Germany. In other words, since 1999, wage costs have increased by about 20% less in Germany than in southern Europe.”
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Depois a receita habitual:
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“The conclusion seems straightforward. The eurozone’s southern European members must reduce their wage costs to claw back the competitiveness that they have lost since adopting the common currency.”
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Se nem dentro dum mesmo sector industrial dum mesmo país há homogeneidade quanto à produtividade, como interpretar a simplificação que se segue:
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“Competitiveness, which is usually measured in terms of unit labor costs, is a relative concept. One country’s gain is another’s loss. Restoring competitiveness in some member countries (Spain, Greece) would require others (Germany in the first instance) to accept deterioration in theirs.”
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Há neste parágrafo qualquer coisa de estranho… o autor presume que um bloco homogéneo chamado ‘industria espanhola’ vai competir de igual para igual, no mesmo terreno que um outro bloco homogéneo chamado ‘indústria alemã’!!! Faz-lhe falta estudar as experiências de Gause sobre os protozoários.
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“So is higher productivity the way out? Even assuming that governments could identify and implement structural reforms that yielded quick productivity gains, it is not clear that higher productivity leads to increased competitiveness.
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In fact, across the EU, the opposite often is true. Some of the countries that achieved the highest growth in labor productivity also lost the most competitiveness (e.g. Ireland).
How is this possible? After all, higher productivity should bring lower unit labor costs. But improvements in productivity are easily overwhelmed by changes in wages. While productivity growth usually is measured in fractions of a percentage point, wage increases have been much larger.”
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Vamos repetir o pormenor porque é muito importante para o nosso argumento:
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“How is this possible? After all, higher productivity should bring lower unit labor costs. But improvements in productivity are easily overwhelmed by changes in wages. While productivity growth usually is measured in fractions of a percentage point, wage increases have been much larger.”
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A génese do título desta série de postais está aqui, o jogo do gato e do rato entre a produtividade e os salários.
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Por fim a declaração de capitulação do autor:
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“Structural reforms are always useful, but increasing productivity takes a long time and does not always translate into higher competitiveness. What is needed in southern Europe is acceptance that domestic demand must fall to a level that allows countries to live without further capital inflows. After that, it should be sufficient to allow labor markets to work until the system finds its new equilibrium.”
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IMHO a Alemanha é, em grande medida um bode expiatório, as empresas dos PIGS não competem directamente com as empresas alemãs, excepto em casos pontuais como a indústria automóvel. As empresas dos PIGS competem directamente com os Low-Cost Manufacturing Countries (LCMC) como a China, a Índia, ou a Europa de Leste.
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Outro artigo “Germany’s super competitiveness: A helping hand from Eastern Europe” de Dalia Marin bate na mesma tecla:
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“German industry has boosted the competitiveness of its exports over the past decade by keeping wages flat.
As a result, German wage restraint has led to a real depreciation of Germany’s fixed nominal exchange rate vis-à-vis its Eurozone members, helping Germany to win market shares at the expense of Southern Europe. The numbers give support to this argument. In fact, Germany’s real effective devaluation in terms of relative unit labour costs compared with the EU27 during 1994-2009 is about 20%. This is indeed substantial.”
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Que produtos é que os europeus compram agora à Alemanha e que há 10 anos compravam internamente ou num outro PIIG? Por causa do preço!
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Repito: Que produtos é que os europeus compram agora à Alemanha e que há 10 anos compravam internamente ou num outro PIIG? Por causa do preço!
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Que produtos é que os europeus compram agora fora da Europa e que há 10 anos compravam internamente ou num outro PIIG? Por causa do preço!
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ADENDA: E como é que o raciocínio de Daniel Gros se conjuga com as conclusões sobre a heterogeneidade intra-sectorial?
Continua
quarta-feira, junho 23, 2010
O jogo do gato e do rato (parte I)
Quando agora somos todos alemães, continuamos a pensar à moda antiga, como quando tínhamos uma moeda própria fracota.
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Por isso, só se vê o jogo do gato e do rato entre a produtividade e os salários.
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"Durante uma audição na comissão parlamentar de Trabalho, Teixeira dos Santos sustentou que “os ganhos de produtividade devem reforçar a competitividade e não ser ultrapassados pela evolução de salários”.
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“Atentando à dimensão dos custos de trabalho (evolução dos salários e produtividade), temos de introduzir uma dinâmica mais virtuosa nos custos de unidade de trabalho. Temos de melhorar a produtividade do trabalho (com formação, inovações, melhoria na gestão), mas também a disciplina salarial com a fixação dos salários para que acompanhe a produtividade”, resumiu o titular da pasta das Finanças."
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“Atentando à dimensão dos custos de trabalho (evolução dos salários e produtividade), temos de introduzir uma dinâmica mais virtuosa nos custos de unidade de trabalho. Temos de melhorar a produtividade do trabalho (com formação, inovações, melhoria na gestão), mas também a disciplina salarial com a fixação dos salários para que acompanhe a produtividade”, resumiu o titular da pasta das Finanças."
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Trecho retirado daqui ""Mais importante que a flexibilização [laboral] é a fixação de salários""
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O mesmo que não se arrependeu dos 2,9%
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E se eu me juntar aos outros que estão a fazer o mesmo que a União de Leiria? Será que vale a pena experimentar o Brasil?
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Continua.
sexta-feira, junho 18, 2010
Acerca do futuro da VW
Interessante artigo no FT sobre a VW "VW: Protective layers".
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A produção automóvel, em grandes quantidades, num país como a Alemanha é um fóssil ainda vivo. É um testemunho de uma época passada.
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É irracional, economicamente, produzir um produto que compete no mercado pelo preço, num país de mão-de-obra cara.
terça-feira, junho 15, 2010
O exemplo alemão
Pensam que a Alemanha está bem?
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Pensem bem!
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Acham que a Alemanha está a viver à sombra da bananeira?
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Interessante e exemplar artigo da revista Der Spiegel "German Economy on Brink of Radical Restructuring"
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" The Ruhr is still struggling to cope with the loss of its former core industries in recent decades. And it's totally uncertain whether the industrial conversion in Emden will succeed. There's no doubt, however, that the change is necessary -- and painful. In Emden. In the Ruhr region. Everywhere in Germany, in the third year of the global crisis.
Germany is on the threshold of a tremendous upheaval, and 2010 will show how it will cope with the decline of old industries and the emergence of new ones. It will be a year of renewal for Germany, but also a year of uncertainty for companies and their employees. The foundations for the future of Germany are now being laid. Now is the time when German firms will find out which products remain globally competitive, and which ones won't. "
Germany is on the threshold of a tremendous upheaval, and 2010 will show how it will cope with the decline of old industries and the emergence of new ones. It will be a year of renewal for Germany, but also a year of uncertainty for companies and their employees. The foundations for the future of Germany are now being laid. Now is the time when German firms will find out which products remain globally competitive, and which ones won't. "
...
"The German economy coped astonishingly well with the global crisis in 2009. But in 2010 it will need to lay the foundations for a radical restructuring if it wants to cope with chronic overcapacity in its aging industries and fend off powerful new competitors from China and India. Does the country need a new business model? SPIEGEL provides an outlook for 2010.
The ship-launching ceremony at the quayside of the German North Sea port of Emden was decidedly low-key. No one held a speech, and there was no orchestra as the container ship Frisia Cottbus slipped into the water shortly before Christmas. The mood was as somber as a funeral, which wasn't surprising because the launch marked the quiet end of a proud era -- it was the last container ship that will ever be launched by the Nordseewerke shipyard. Its 106-year history of shipbuilding is over.
...
But now the parent company, ThyssenKrupp, sees no future for shipbuilding in Emden, and the outlook isn't much better for the other German shipyards. Six of a total of 40 firms in the sector filed for insolvency in 2009. No other industry has been worse affected by the global economic crisis.
But the death of shipbuilding in Emden may herald the beginning of a new industry. The new owner of the yard, SIAG Schaaf Industrie AG, plans to convert it to building steel underwater foundations for wind farms. If the purchase agreement is signed and sealed in January, as planned, company owner Rüdiger Schaaf will invest €40 million ($58 million) in new equipment and transform Emden into a center for wind-power engineering. Under Schaaf's plan, a total of 720 out of 1,200 shipyard workers will keep their jobs.
Painful Transformation
Schaaf has likened the industrial transformation underway in Emden to that of the Ruhr coal and steel region of western Germany. The Ruhr is still struggling to cope with the loss of its former core industries in recent decades. And it's totally uncertain whether the industrial conversion in Emden will succeed. There's no doubt, however, that the change is necessary -- and painful. In Emden. In the Ruhr region. Everywhere in Germany, in the third year of the global crisis.
Germany is on the threshold of a tremendous upheaval, and 2010 will show how it will cope with the decline of old industries and the emergence of new ones. It will be a year of renewal for Germany, but also a year of uncertainty for companies and their employees. The foundations for the future of Germany are now being laid. Now is the time when German firms will find out which products remain globally competitive, and which ones won't. It's already been made clear that there's no world market anymore for container ships, mass-produced clothing, mobile phones or consumer electronics made in Germany. Others can produce those things more cheaply, and better.
This crisis is accelerating the pace of structural change. These days, an increasing number of foreign competitors are capable of producing things that had previously been the domain of German companies. The crisis is exacerbating the process because it has made customers focus even more heavily on price, thereby subjecting businesses to merciless scrutiny in terms of their cost efficiency and quality."
...
""There's a race against time going on," says Henrik Enderlein, an economist at the Berlin-based Hertie School of Governance. Unless the economy soon starts growing so strongly that activity returns to normal -- which most economists don't expect -- companies will start laying off workers in the coming months. "We will start seeing the first negative effects on the labor market in the early summer," Enderlein says."
The ship-launching ceremony at the quayside of the German North Sea port of Emden was decidedly low-key. No one held a speech, and there was no orchestra as the container ship Frisia Cottbus slipped into the water shortly before Christmas. The mood was as somber as a funeral, which wasn't surprising because the launch marked the quiet end of a proud era -- it was the last container ship that will ever be launched by the Nordseewerke shipyard. Its 106-year history of shipbuilding is over.
...
But now the parent company, ThyssenKrupp, sees no future for shipbuilding in Emden, and the outlook isn't much better for the other German shipyards. Six of a total of 40 firms in the sector filed for insolvency in 2009. No other industry has been worse affected by the global economic crisis.
But the death of shipbuilding in Emden may herald the beginning of a new industry. The new owner of the yard, SIAG Schaaf Industrie AG, plans to convert it to building steel underwater foundations for wind farms. If the purchase agreement is signed and sealed in January, as planned, company owner Rüdiger Schaaf will invest €40 million ($58 million) in new equipment and transform Emden into a center for wind-power engineering. Under Schaaf's plan, a total of 720 out of 1,200 shipyard workers will keep their jobs.
Painful Transformation
Schaaf has likened the industrial transformation underway in Emden to that of the Ruhr coal and steel region of western Germany. The Ruhr is still struggling to cope with the loss of its former core industries in recent decades. And it's totally uncertain whether the industrial conversion in Emden will succeed. There's no doubt, however, that the change is necessary -- and painful. In Emden. In the Ruhr region. Everywhere in Germany, in the third year of the global crisis.
Germany is on the threshold of a tremendous upheaval, and 2010 will show how it will cope with the decline of old industries and the emergence of new ones. It will be a year of renewal for Germany, but also a year of uncertainty for companies and their employees. The foundations for the future of Germany are now being laid. Now is the time when German firms will find out which products remain globally competitive, and which ones won't. It's already been made clear that there's no world market anymore for container ships, mass-produced clothing, mobile phones or consumer electronics made in Germany. Others can produce those things more cheaply, and better.
This crisis is accelerating the pace of structural change. These days, an increasing number of foreign competitors are capable of producing things that had previously been the domain of German companies. The crisis is exacerbating the process because it has made customers focus even more heavily on price, thereby subjecting businesses to merciless scrutiny in terms of their cost efficiency and quality."
...
""There's a race against time going on," says Henrik Enderlein, an economist at the Berlin-based Hertie School of Governance. Unless the economy soon starts growing so strongly that activity returns to normal -- which most economists don't expect -- companies will start laying off workers in the coming months. "We will start seeing the first negative effects on the labor market in the early summer," Enderlein says."
sexta-feira, maio 21, 2010
Para quem o mundo é simples e linear...
Para quem o mundo é simples e linear, para quem o mundo é ou preto ou branco, convém refrescar a cabeça e mergulhar numa realidade que é bem mais complexa, graças a Deus.
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BTW, interessante perceber como alguns gestores chineses já perceberam o que o Forum para a Competitividade em Portugal ainda não atingiu:
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"Neo-Neon, for instance, expects to boost production of LED lighting in China even as it expands in Vietnam. Chinese workers today "want easy jobs and higher pay," says Fan. "We can give them that if we make more expensive, higher-margin products.""
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Não é por causa de trabalhadores que correm mais depressa, é por causa de gestores que conduzem as suas empresas para novos níveis de originação de valor.
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Há que recordar este artigo de Agosto de 2008 que na altura comentei neste blogue "German Companies Get Out of China"
terça-feira, dezembro 08, 2009
quinta-feira, setembro 10, 2009
Engenharia eleitoral (parte II)
Lembram-se das encomendas da defesa alemã que empolaram o PIB germânico, so convenient in this election period...
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O Japão também teve eleições hà dias.
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Reparem nesta pérola de engenharia eleitoral:
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" Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese machinery orders fell to a record low in July, signaling companies burdened with idle factories are wary that a rebound in global demand will last.
Orders, an indicator of capital spending in the next three to six months, plunged 9.3 percent from June to 665 billion yen ($7.2 billion), the lowest level since the survey began in 1987, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The decline was more the twice the 3.5 percent drop forecast by economists."
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And now something completely different:
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"The decline in the machinery data was largely a reaction to a 9.7 percent jump in June that was driven by a single order for equipment used to generate nuclear power, the Cabinet Office said."
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Recortes retirados de "Japan Machine Orders Fall to Record Low as Factories Sit Idle"
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Lá se vai a retoma...
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O Japão também teve eleições hà dias.
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Reparem nesta pérola de engenharia eleitoral:
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" Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese machinery orders fell to a record low in July, signaling companies burdened with idle factories are wary that a rebound in global demand will last.
Orders, an indicator of capital spending in the next three to six months, plunged 9.3 percent from June to 665 billion yen ($7.2 billion), the lowest level since the survey began in 1987, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The decline was more the twice the 3.5 percent drop forecast by economists."
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And now something completely different:
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"The decline in the machinery data was largely a reaction to a 9.7 percent jump in June that was driven by a single order for equipment used to generate nuclear power, the Cabinet Office said."
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Recortes retirados de "Japan Machine Orders Fall to Record Low as Factories Sit Idle"
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Lá se vai a retoma...
terça-feira, setembro 08, 2009
Engenharia Eleitoral
"Encomendas à indústria alemã subiram 3,5 por cento em Julho"
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"Mesmo assim, as encomendas do estrangeiro de bens da Alemanha, um dos países líderes mundiais de exportações, caíram 2,3 por cento em Julho, enquanto as encomendas domésticas subiram 10,3 por cento. “Tal mostra que existe ainda alguma actividade na Alemanha”, comentou o economista Carsten Brzeski."
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Oh que bom!
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Mas há algo que não bate certo. Como é que um país idoso consegue pôr as pessoas a consumir?
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"German industrial orders increased 3.5% m/m in July, which was well above expectations (we had expected 2.5% m/m, consensus 2.0% m/m). This follows a 3.8% m/m increase in June (revised down from 4.5%), signalling that the German manufacturing sector is in the early phase of a robust and strong rebound although there is a caveat. The increase was driven solely by domestic orders, which increased 10.3% m/m while foreign orders declined 2.3% m/m. The key driver is domestic capital goods orders, which increased 17.2% m/m. This is almost too good to be true and it certainly is. A spokesman for the Federal Statistics Office said this was in part thanks to a big order for military vehicles in July."
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Ah!
Ah!
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Já percebi... Ah! A Alemanha também tem eleições a 27 de Setembro!
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Fonte Danske Markets
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Fonte via Filipe Garcia.
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"Mesmo assim, as encomendas do estrangeiro de bens da Alemanha, um dos países líderes mundiais de exportações, caíram 2,3 por cento em Julho, enquanto as encomendas domésticas subiram 10,3 por cento. “Tal mostra que existe ainda alguma actividade na Alemanha”, comentou o economista Carsten Brzeski."
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Oh que bom!
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Mas há algo que não bate certo. Como é que um país idoso consegue pôr as pessoas a consumir?
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"German industrial orders increased 3.5% m/m in July, which was well above expectations (we had expected 2.5% m/m, consensus 2.0% m/m). This follows a 3.8% m/m increase in June (revised down from 4.5%), signalling that the German manufacturing sector is in the early phase of a robust and strong rebound although there is a caveat. The increase was driven solely by domestic orders, which increased 10.3% m/m while foreign orders declined 2.3% m/m. The key driver is domestic capital goods orders, which increased 17.2% m/m. This is almost too good to be true and it certainly is. A spokesman for the Federal Statistics Office said this was in part thanks to a big order for military vehicles in July."
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Ah!
Ah!
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Já percebi... Ah! A Alemanha também tem eleições a 27 de Setembro!
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Fonte Danske Markets
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Fonte via Filipe Garcia.
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