Cuidado com as certezas

A propósito disto (1):

Lembrei-me disto (2):

E já agora:

Quando penso no que tem sido a evolução:

• na habitação;
• na saúde;
• nos transportes públicos,
• na imigração; e
• na educação.

Penso naquele número 10, "The planner has no right to be wrong."

Na ciência, as hipóteses são testadas e refutadas, e os cientistas não são culpados se as suas hipóteses forem refutadas, desde que sigam o método científico. Ao contrário dos cientistas, os políticos não podem dar-se ao luxo de estar errados porque as suas decisões têm consequências no mundo real que têm impacte directo na vida das pessoas.

Os políticos lidam frequentemente com "problemas graves", que são complexos, difíceis de definir e não têm uma solução clara. Estes problemas são ainda mais complicados pela ambiguidade de causas e efeitos e pela diversidade de opiniões públicas, tornando difícil para os políticos encontrar soluções universalmente aceites.

E vejo tantos políticos cheios de certezas.

E recordo Roger Martin em Maio passado:

"Betterment over Perfection

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In contrast, the mindset of betterment focuses on the journey from the choices producing the current painful gap to enacting a set of choices that eliminates the gap. The current choices, the gap, the journey, and the desired strategic outcome are all front of mind.

In addition, by focusing on one gap at a time, betterment makes the strategy problem more tractable, and tractability is often a challenge in strategy. Executive teams can get overwhelmed by the task of creating from scratch a perfect overall strategy. That often feels too daunting and too abstract. Betterment is a more concrete task that makes it easier for executive teams to stay engaged and power through."

(1) - Fonte

(2) - Fonte

Uma lição de humildade

Uma lição de humildade, nada de soluções gerais para problemas específicos e, nada de soluções talhadas na pedra desde o princípio:

"If most development challenges are considered ‘wicked’ problems, then countries dealing with fragility or conflict, let us call them Fragile and Conflict Affected Situations (FCAS) for now, most certainly embody the essence of the definition. In these ‘wicked’ situations, more than anywhere else, delivering tangible and timely results to citizens is critical. However, ... the only constant in development programming in FCAS is rapid and unpredictable change itself.
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The literature is replete with case studies to support the notion that FCAS and other wicked development problems resist standardised responses. The growing movement of researchers and practitioners who now argue that development programmes need to be more sensitive to local needs and more adaptive to the hyper-dynamic environment is welcomed.
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In order to evolve this argument into concrete action, new adaptive tools and approaches are required. A starting point is that interventions should be designed with these four core principles in mind.
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Local solutions for local problems Pushing problem driven positive deviance Try, learn, iterate, adapt  Scale through diffusion.
Adaptive management seeks to better achieve desired outcomes and impacts through the systematic, iterative, and planned use of emergent knowledge and learning throughout the programme lifecycle. It involves reacting and responding quickly to changes in the political and socio-economic operating environment."

Trecho retirado de "What is Adaptive Management?"

Bonito e libertador!

A propósito de "A "Grande" lição da minha vida" encontrei mais um texto da grande Hilary Austen, "Artistry: the Territory, the Map and a Compass":

"The complex problems we face nowadays go by many names: ‘social messes’, ‘wicked problems’ and ‘big hairy problems’; I like to call them ‘enigmatic problems’.
...
As we go about solving enigmatic problems, the ends and the means are not only unclear, they are also interdependent: as efforts to solve them proceed, the ends evolve as means are generated. Likewise, as means unfold, new ends become possible which, in turn, may demand new means. All of which invites an observation: that the enigmatic problems we face are comprised of features identical to those routinely found in the arts – including uncertainty, ambiguity, complexity, change, surprise, choice, subtlety, indeterminacy, uniqueness and the aforementioned interdependence between ends and means.
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Artists see the features of enigmatic problems not as obstacles, but as exciting opportunities; rather than fearing ambiguity, they seek it out; and rather than avoiding surprises, they embrace them. Might this mean that the enigmatic problems that permeate modern organizations can be treated as opportunities for artistry? I believe so, but only if we cross an oft-forbidden boundary and enter a world that has always been open to artists, but seldom to the rest of us: the world of qualitative thought and experience, where judgment and imagination take their place alongside quantitative analysis and deductive reasoning."

Bonito e libertador!

Não existem soluções à espera de serem encontradas quando lidamos com wicked messes

A propósito desta entrevista "Santos Silva: "Temos todas as condições para encontrar as soluções de que precisamos"".
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Não creio que seja possível "encontrar as soluções de que precisamos". Não, não é pessimismo!
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Acham que a situação deste país se assemelha à deste puzzle?

Claro que o desafio de resolver o puzzle é muito mais fácil.
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Basta ter tempo e paciência para encontrar a solução de um puzzle (BTW adoro, quando tenho tempo, fazer puzzles, desensarilhar nós, fazer sudokus, ...). Quando enfrentamos um puzzle, ou queremos desensarilhar um novelo de fio de pesca, ou queremos resolver um sudoku de seis estrelas, sabemos, à partida, que existe uma solução, e que com tempo e algum método e muita paciência encontraremos a solução que nos aguarda no final.
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Mas a situação do nosso país não é a de um puzzle... julgo que se assemelha mais a um "wicked problem" ou a uma "wicked mess":
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" 1. There is no definitive formulation of a wicked problem (defining wicked problems is itself a wicked problem).
2. Wicked problems have no stopping rule.
3. Solutions to wicked problems are not true-or-false, but better or worse.
4. There is no immediate and no ultimate test of a solution to a wicked problem.
5. Every solution to a wicked problem is a "one-shot operation"; because there is no opportunity to learn by trial-and-error, every attempt counts significantly.
6. Wicked problems do not have an enumerable (or an exhaustively describable) set of potential solutions, nor is there a well-described set of permissible operations that may be incorporated into the plan.
7. Every wicked problem is essentially unique.
8. Every wicked problem can be considered to be a symptom of another problem.
9. The existence of a discrepancy representing a wicked problem can be explained in numerous ways. The choice of explanation determines the nature of the problem's resolution.
10. The planner has no right to be wrong (planners are liable for the consequences of the actions they generate)."
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Foi Robert Horn quem me deu a conhecer o conceito de wicked mess/problem. Segundo ele, uma wicked mess/problem nunca tem solução:
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"Wicked Problems are never solved, but “re-solved” for a time. Action plan implementation is an ongoing process. In time, the state of the systems that comprise a given Social Mess will change, in part because of the actions taken by stakeholders and in part because everything changes. Change is integral for interconnected complex systems that comprise Social Messes. To paraphrase Heraclitus, it is impossible to step into the same Mess twice." (BTW, como visual assumido que sou, Robert Horn e os seus Mess Maps são um must).
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Assim, não posso concordar com Santos Silva. Não existe uma "solução" à espera de ser "encontrada". Existem alguns algoritmos que dão sugestões sobre como abordar wicked messes mas nada mais "WICKED PROBLEMS AND NETWORK APPROACHES TO RESOLUTION" ou "Mess Mapping and Resolution Mapping Processes"

Confiar na razão? (parte III)

Confiar demasiado na razão, depender exclusivamente do pensamento analítico, leva-nos, quando estamos perante um wicked problem, a um impasse.

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Atentemos num exemplo do dia: "A vertigem" do já tradicional Daniel Amaral.

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Daniel Amaral concentra-se na solução... sem nunca se interrogar sobre os mecanismos que nos trouxeram a esta situação.

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Concentra-se na solução sem nada nos dizer sobre o problema.

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"Churchman described wicked problem as “a class of social system problems which are ill-formulated, where the information is confusing, where there are many clients, and decision makers with conflicting values, and where the ramifications in the whole system are thoroughly confusing”. In other words, wicked problems are ill-defined and unique in their causes, character, and solution.

With hard problems, your job is to look at the situation, identify a set of definite conditions, and calculate a solution. With wicked problems, the solution can no longer be the only or even the primary focus. Instead, dealing with wicked problems demands that attention be paid to understanding the nature of the problem itself. Problem understanding is central; the solution, secondary."

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Trecho retirado daqui.

Strategy as a Wicked Problem

O número deste mês da revista Harvard Business Review inclui um artigo de John C. Camillus sobre a estratégia.
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A estratégia como um problema "encasinado": "Strategy as a Wicked Problem".
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"Wicked issues are different because traditional processes can’t resolve them, ... A wicked problem has innumerable causes, is tough to describe, and doesn’t have a right answer, as we will see in the next section. ... They’re the opposite of hard but ordinary problems, which people can solve in a finite time period by applying standard techniques. Not only do conventional processes fail to tackle wicked problems, but they may exacerbate situations by generating undesirable consequences."
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Para algumas organizações, formular uma estratégia não é, não pode ser como montar um puzzle. Um puzzle só tem uma solução!
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"It’s impossible to find solutions to wicked strategy problems, but companies can learn to cope with them."
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Beinhocker no seu livro "The Origin of Wealth" propõe que nestas situações as empresas tenham "bushy strategies", que avancem "em pequeno, em modo experimental" em várias direcções em simultâneo, mas preparadas para rapidamente cortar e concentrar nas experiências que dêem melhores resultados.
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Aqui o autor propõe: "In a world of Newtonian order, where there is a clear relationship between cause and effect, companies can judge what strategies they want to pursue. In a wicked world of complex and shadowy possibilities, enterprises don’t know if their strategies are appropriate or what those strategies’ consequences might be. They should therefore abandon the convention of thinking through all their options before choosing a single one, and experiment with a number of strategies that are feasible even if they are unsure of the implications."
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"companies can formulate strategies that will deliver results in various scenarios—I call these robust actions—and use Pareto analysis to prioritize a small number of them that will produce the most impact."
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E algo em que temos trabalho muito nos últimos meses:
"To develop a feed-forward orientation as a complement to the feedback practices they currently use, corporations must learn to envision the future. In this variation of scenario planning, enterprises should describe the set of external and internal circumstances that they would like to see in the next 10, 20, or 50 years. This will open executives’ minds to the range and unpredictability of possibilities that the future may bring."
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O autor escreve, talvez por causa do tipo e dimensão das organizações com que trabalha, que as organizações podem influenciar, podem trabalhar para alterar a realidade para o cenário futuro mais desejado. Pessoalmente não parto desse princípio, por mim as organizações (PMEs) não podem alterar as correntes do mundo exterior, têm de as perceber e ver que estratégias robustas podem adoptar, que estratégias podem seguir e que funcionem positivamente na gama alargada de cenários possíveis.