"a philosophy of becoming"

Um dos últimos sublinhados que fiz no livro "Lead from the Future" de Mark Johnson e Josh Suskewicz foi:

"in an era of relentless change, a company survives and thrives based not on its size or performance at any given time but on its ability to reposition itself to create a new future, and to leverage a purpose-driven mission to that end." 

Entretanto, na semana passada li "How to Avoid Strategy Myopia" de Seth Godin onde sublinhei:

"polishing yesterday’s work isn’t useful if the world is in flux. When we focus on improving the efficiency of our current plan, we inevitably miss the opportunity to develop a new strategy in response to new conditions.

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"strategy myopia," which prioritizes the urgent, the proven, and the easily measured. It pushes us to execute reliable plans instead of embracing possibility.

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In part this myopia comes from what we expect from a new strategy. Strategy is not a plan. A plan might come with a guarantee: "If we do this, we win." A strategy, on the other hand, comes with the motto: "This might not work." Strategy is a philosophy of becoming, a chance to create the conditions to enable the change we seek to make in the world.

When the boss demands a strategy that comes with certainty and proof, we're likely to settle for a collection of chores, tasks, and tactics, which is not the same as an elegant, resilient strategy. To do strategy right, we need to lean into possibility."

Interessante, na mesma manhã tinha sublinhado no livro "Lead from the Future": 

"The future will reward clarity,” he says, “but punish certainty" 

Enquanto leio estas coisas, encontro tantas e tantas notícias sobre empresas a fechar, despedimentos, crescimento raquítico... e tanta gente a contar com certezas, a exigir direitos adquiridos. 

Segunda-feira à noite, numa reunião por Zoom, recordei este trecho:

"So who was the winner? What was the best strategy in the end? What Lindgren found was that this is a nonsensical question. In an evolutionary system such as Lindgren's model, there is no single winner, no optimal, no best strategy. Rather, anyone who is alive at a particular point in time, is in effect a winner, because everyone else is dead. To be alive at all, an agent must have a strategy with something going for it, some way of making a living, defending against competitors, and dealing with the vagaries of its environment."

Em tempos de incerteza, leituras como estas deviam lembrar-nos de que a verdadeira força não reside em manter o status quo, terra de zombies, mas sim em buscar a clareza que nos permite visualizar novos horizontes e abraçar a mudança com determinação. Cada desafio é uma oportunidade para nos reinventarmos e respondermos ao novo com propósito e abertura. O futuro pertence a quem tem a audácia de imaginar e construir possibilidades.

Calibrar a mudança (parte II)

Era minha intenção escrever a continuação da Parte I avançando para mais uma nota retirada do artigo da HBR deste mês. Contudo, a minha leitura matinal de ontem parece-me perfeitamente adequada para servir de ligação ao tema da calibração da mudança:

"We begin with what happens to humans when the future is uncertain, as, for example, when it's not clear what the impact of the new initiative is going to be, or when it's not clear who's in charge or how long that person will be around for.

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We really don't like uncertainty.

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Fear and anxiety are different, in other words, because fear comes with an ending. ... But when our stress is not immediately related to an object, then there is nothing to remove in order to alleviate it. This is what's particularly pernicious about uncertainty, then: It is unbounded.

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But here's the rub: It's very hard to make safety signals for humans at work, precisely because change at work is so often unbounded.

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Beyond ulcers, another characteristic of our response to uncertainty is that we become less rational.

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Unbounded uncertaintywhich we can think of as the possibility of disruptive change coupled with the absence of any credible signal that things will return to normal-produces high levels of stress. At the same time, our need for an end to unpredictability leads us to attempt to latch on to anything that offers the promise of a return to certainty, however irrational those things may be."

Trechos retirados de "The Problem with Change" de Ashley Goodall.

"If you're open to ambiguity" (parte II)

Há muitos anos numa livraria em Buarcos comprei um livro que na contracapa trazia a frase "Não existem coincidências, todos os acasos são significativos."

Ontem de manhã publiquei "If you're open to ambiguity." Depois, ao final da tarde dou de caras com uma frase de Søren Kierkegaard: 

"To dare is to lose one’s footing momentarily. Not to dare is to lose oneself"

Correr riscos, mesmo que signifique enfrentar incerteza ou instabilidade temporária ("perder o pé"), é essencial para o crescimento pessoal e a auto-descoberta. Por outro lado, evitar riscos e não ousar sair da zona de conforto ("não arriscar") leva à perda do verdadeiro eu ou da identidade, pois envolve uma falha em nos envolvermos plenamente com o campo de possibilidades da vida. 

Agora é aplicar isto às empresas, assumir a coragem de enfrentar o desconhecido e fazer escolhas, apesar da incerteza. Sem isso, humanos ou empresas deixam de ter vida autêntica, deixam de ter graus de liberdade.

Adenda: Esta manhã ao ouvir a homilia do Bispo Barron sobre os textos da Liturgia de hoje ... outra vez Søren Kierkegaard.

"If you're open to ambiguity"

 ""If you're open to ambiguity, you don't have tunnel vision, and things are not so set in stone," she told me. "You're a little more malleable, in your relationships, in your practice, or your expectations of yourself." You can push beyond the comfort zone of practiced know-how. You can test not just the problem but yourself. In turn, this stance instills confidence, even courage, she and other doctors noted. "When you value uncertainty," said Picker, "there is a confidence that builds and allows continued thinking and rethinking about next steps, as the picture changes." The crumbling of normalcy is no longer the abyss that you once feared.

Heeding the unease of uncertainty to get ahead of trouble, moving past the perceived obviousness of a first off-base answer, deeply inhabiting the question at hand, continually working at the outer edges of your knowledge, creating a culture that values notknowing: this is how you can pursue the prowess of adaptive expertise every day, whether you are roughing out a first take on a crisis or approaching the critical phase of a routine. Practicing such skills in your lifework exposes your limitations and expands your options."

Trecho retirado de "Uncertain : the wisdom and wonder of being unsure" de Maggie Jackson.

Risk and objectives

With ISO 9001:2015 came the risk based approach, and with ISO 9000:2015 came a definition of risk:

"Risk - effect of uncertainty

Note 1 to entry: An effect is a deviation from the expected"

It took me just over two years to realize the importance of Note 1 and formulate this approach:

"Therefore, in a strategic approach, the policy must be broken down into objectives for the management system (MS). These objectives cannot be established in a vacuum, but must consider the external context of the organization, its internal reality, and the expectations and values of relevant interested parties.

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Assessing the external context, internal reality, and interested parties expectations and values allows for the identification of a set of risks that could hinder the company's ability to achieve its performance objectives, as well as a set of opportunities that could potentially benefit the company's ability to reach its performance targets. These risks and opportunities should be evaluated, and actions should be taken to minimize risks and capitalize on opportunities, based on priorities. These actions will be part of achieving the objectives of the desired future MS.

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Thus, clauses 4.1 and 4.2 of ISO 9001:2015 refer to a moment prior to defining objectives aligned with the policy, influencing it. Meanwhile, clause 6.1 of ISO 9001:2015 refers to a moment after defining objectives, which may contradict or benefit their fulfillment."

This means that we should not determine risks and opportunities in the abstract, but rather by considering the objectives of the management system. Failing to do so runs the serious risk of generating long lists of risks and opportunities resulting from free brainstorming, but with little added value for organizations.

I had never looked for the definition of risk in ISO 31000 ... until some weeks ago.

According to ISO 31000, risk is defined as the effect of uncertainty on objectives. This implies that risk is the possibility of a positive or negative impact on an organization's objectives. Uncertainty refers to the state of having incomplete or imperfect information about something.

The relationship between risk and uncertainty is that uncertainty is the source of risk. In other words, risk cannot exist without uncertainty. For example, if you know with certainty that something will happen, then there is no risk. However, if you don't know with certainty what will happen, then there is a risk.

ISO 31000 defines risk as the effect of uncertainty on objectives. This definition is important because it emphasizes the fact that risk is not just about the probability of something happening. It is also about the impact that something happening will have on an organization's objectives.

Here are some examples of how uncertainty can lead to risk:

• A company that is planning to launch a new product is uncertain about how the product will be received by consumers. This uncertainty could lead to risk if the product is not well-received and the company loses money.
• A bank is uncertain about the future of the economy. This uncertainty could lead to risk if the economy takes a downturn and the bank loses money.
• A government is uncertain about the future of the political climate. This uncertainty could lead to risk if there is a coup or other political instability.

As you can see, uncertainty can lead to risk in many different ways. It is important for organizations to understand the different types of uncertainty that they face and to develop strategies for managing them.

Uncertainty is generated by the internal and external context.

How do you determine risks in your MS, do you take objectives into account?