Recomendação de leitura

Recomendo à tríade que leia o último livro de Daniel Kahneman.

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Podem começar por "É inútil"

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"Before Kahneman and Tversky, people who thought about social problems and human behavior tended to assume that we are mostly rational agents. They assumed that people have control over the most important parts of their own thinking. They assumed that people are basically sensible utility-maximizers and that when they depart from reason it’s because some passion like fear or love has distorted their judgment.

Kahneman and Tversky conducted experiments. They proved that actual human behavior often deviates from the old models and that the flaws are not just in the passions but in the machinery of cognition. They demonstrated that people rely on unconscious biases and rules of thumb to navigate the world, for good and ill. Many of these biases have become famous: priming, framing, loss-aversion."

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"We are players in a game we don’t understand. Most of our own thinking is below awareness. Fifty years ago, people may have assumed we are captains of our own ships, but, in fact, our behavior is often aroused by context in ways we can’t see. Our biases frequently cause us to want the wrong things. Our perceptions and memories are slippery, especially about our own mental states. Our free will is bounded. We have much less control over ourselves than we thought."

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E é esta complexidade, incoerência, inconsstência que torna Mongo possível e expande a paisagem competitiva onde todos podemos viver em simultâneo, desde que nunca mais faça sentido um TNT (todos no top) dos anos 80 do século passado. (Porque agora não existe um top, existem dezenas de tops)

Tríade: académicos, políticos e comentadores que só sabem jogar o jogo do "agarra o porco"

Competência versus irracionalidade

"Fizemos um jogo competente frente à Costa do Marfim”

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Todos os anos desaparecem no caixote do lixo da economia muitas empresas competentes...

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São tão competentes, tão competentes, que se tornam demasiado previsíveis, que se tornam presas fáceis da concorrência, que se afastam do mundo real e não percebem que existem oportunidades que podem ser aproveitadas.

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Citação de Tom Peters no twitter:

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"Too extensive planning can lead to self certainty and surpress surprise or make surprise an annoyance rather than an opportunity"

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Citação de Tom Asacker no twitter:

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"Beware (be aware) or purely rational optimism. Leads to incrementalism. Need irrational optimism to create breakthroughs"

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Será que a competência tolera o optimismo irracional?

Irracionalidade na 'no profit zone'

Algures no tempo alguma coisa se partiu e se perdeu.
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Doug Merril no A Fistful of Euros chama a atenção para o seguinte sintoma:
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"Let’s take Bob Lutz, the vice-Chairman of General Motors. In the Jan. 31 Economist, we find him saying GM held on to SAAB for nineteen unprofitable years out of twenty, for a $5 billion loss, selling car after car at a loss of $5K each because … wait for it … “it loved the marque and the cars.”
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I had to read it again: they flushed five billion dollars of their shareholders’ money down the toilet for the personal amusement of the executives, and went on doing it for two decades. More amazing still, Lutz is dumb enough, or arrogant enough, or both to tell exactly that story to a reporter. Most amazing, he seems to still be vice-Chairman!"
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"In the "no profit pattern," once profitable businesses become profitless. There is no profit in the industry, no value to be captured.
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The no profit pattern is not established by one bad year. It is established when the sum of profits from the "good" years in an industry minus the sum of losses in the "bad" years yields zero or negative profit.
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... an overabundance of the same business design within an industry. Every player competes the same way, leading to deteriorating economics and commoditization. Because everyone is competing in the same way, the only abenue left open for differentiation is through price. Each playr tries to lower product to increase market share. Competitors, rather than doing the hard work of business design innovation, return the favor."
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Trecho de Adrian Slywotzky e David Morrison in "Profit Patterns".
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Como é possível persistir na 'no profit zone' por tantos anos?