Para o desenho dos cenários dos futuros, sempre hipotéticos (parte II)

Continuado daqui.

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Era isto que eu tinha em mente quando falava na necessidade de rever cenários com este input importante sobre a valorização do yuan.

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"21 Winners And Losers From The Chinese Yuan Revaluation" (slideshow)

Para o desenho dos cenários dos futuros, sempre hipotéticos

Não esquecer de incluir:

• "Germany and France examine 'two-tier' euro"

• "China Currency at Strongest Level in Nearly Two Years"

ADENDA:

• "Yuan Impact: General Manufacturing"

"But some manufacturers in China—both domestic and foreign—could benefit from yuan appreciation. Overall, “Industries that benefit from [yuan] appreciation actually outnumber industries that lose,” CICC said in a March report. “This finding does not fit well with the conventional wisdom that [yuan] appreciation is generally bad for firms in China. This is because the damaging effect on China’s exports has dominated the debate” while the benefits have been understated, the report said."

The Six Sense

“in general, organizations locked into the machine metaphor show an emergent behaviour that can be described as single-loop learning. An analogy is that of a thermostat that scans and monitors its environment for changes in temperature. As the ambient temperature lowers, then the thermostat fires the boiler to increase heat. Once a required level of heat is achieved, the thermostat shuts down the boiler”
…
“Just as the thermostat is incapable of insightful learning, so is the organization. Budgets are a manifestation of such single-loop learning; here, expenditure, sales and profits are monitored to ensure that the organization’s activities follow a narrow path and are contained within predetermined parameters.”

“By contrast, with double-loop learning the control system is intelligent and is able to question whether or not operating norms are appropriate. This happens in the ‘brain’-type organization. Budgets are changed to allow for unexpected opportunities … With double-loop learning, operating procedures are changed in response to emerging situations.”

Este texto, extraído do livro “The Six Sense” encaixa perfeitamente com estas duas figuras retiradas dos livros de Kaplan e Norton.

O ciclo de aprendizagem estratégica permite-nos abandonar a navegação por piloto automático, permite-nos abandonar o “business as usual” e questionar os pressupostos mantidos até então.

Que livro... acabei a sua leitura hoje, numa viagem de Alfa pendular... e a sensação é... tenho de o voltar a ler outra vez, tem tanto sumo... UAUUUUUUU!