No final da parte III volto a insistir num conjunto de teclas que rotulo de importantes e que costumo referir aqui no blogue sempre que falo em aumentar a produtividade do país:
- "a necessidade de deixar as empresas morrerem e ter cuidado com os apoios que se dão"
- "recordo os Flying Geese, uma ilustração clara do que é preciso para conseguir a tal alteração da composição relativa dos sectores económico"
- "para conseguir a tal alteração da composição relativa dos sectores económicos tem de haver uma transição mais ou menos dolorosa"
"In a courageous bit of cross-platform marketing, the chief executive of Japanese investment bank Nomura has begun appearing in adverts for the country's most aggressive online job-seeking platform, Bizreach.
...
But the message underlying the adverts is unmistakable: corporate metabolism has resumed in Japan after a long dormancy. A system that once inefficiently hoarded human resources is now watching those self-deploy elsewhere. ...
After decades of resource misallocation, risk-aversion and stagnancy, Japan's job market looks more liquid. Critically, it feels like an environment where start-ups can aspire to recruiting the nation's best people, say managers at venture capital funds.
All this provides a strong tailwind for the Japanese government, which has invested a great deal of hope and funding into transforming the country's once anaemic start-up scene. It is, on one viewing, a grasp for panacea.
The ambitions are charged with the faith that start-ups can drive GDP growth and productivity, rescue the country from a long-term innovative tailspin and channel its talent in the right — or at least less wrong - direction. It has a belated, even desperate feel to it, but start-ups now seem to be Japan's core industrial policy.
...
Under heavy government pressure, Japan's three biggest banks have begun offering start-ups loans backed against current and future cash flow, breaking their entrepreneurialism crushing habit of only lending against hard collateral such as the property of a would-be start-up founder.
...
Looming over this success is a coming moment when, if it wants the private sector to come in as a big investor in its start-up market, Japan must confront what it means to have a working capitalist metabolism. [Moi ici: E Portugal também, sabem o que é que isto significa? Deixem as empresas morrer!!!] After decades of holding the cost of money as low as it can go, the country has shown a high tolerance for zombies and a low tolerance for carnage. If private money is to flow, that won't work this time.
A start-up-driven economy, [Moi ici: O Japão precisa de fazer a transição dolorosa para abandonar 40 anos de estagnação e aposta em start-ups. É o mesmo que Portugal precisa de fazer, mas como a Irlanda, como se ilustra na parte II, acredito que será mais rápido com investimento directo estrangeiro. Mas o ponto principal é que o Japão já percebeu que não é com as empresas actuais que dará o salto. Algo que é bem ilustrado pela figura dos "Flying Geese"] with lots of private investment, only works if participants and overseers accept that failure is as necessary a function of this metabolism as success. Investment in start-ups is driven by a promise of extraordinary returns, but that promise can only be kept if everyone is tested against a pressing threat of demise. For too long, Japan's deflationary economy and ultra-low interest rates meant that low profitability survival was a valid corporate option: that would never - and did neverbring in the VCs and risk capital.
But Japan is now normalising, and there is a real sense that things are going to break.[Moi ici: Conseguem imaginar como seria ver isto em Portugal? Conseguem imaginar como o discurso do "Ajudem-me, sou um coitadinho, sou uma vítima de uns maus" começava a acabar em prol de um pouco português "keep a stiff upper lip" mas pragmático equacionar se a situação é estrutural ou conjuntural] The problem with an industrial policy, for all the good intentions, is that it draws legitimacy from the pledge of long-term nurture. Japan will soon see if it has a taste for state-backed destruction."
Imaginem uma conversa destas em Portugal... imaginem dizer ao filho de cinco anos:
"- A actuação do vosso ano na Festa de Natal do jardim-escola foi uma valente porcaria!"
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