Como se recompensam os sobreviventes? Com mais impostos

Não estou de acordo com muito do que se escreve em "¿Qué aplauden exactamente? La primera etapa del optimismo es el realismo." sobretudo acerca das soluções, mas estou de acordo com a descrição crua e brutal do que aí virá.

Não, senhor ministro, o pior não passou:

"Lo peor vendrá en dos oleadas. Una cuando el mercado laboral deje de estar dopado y otro cuando venzan los créditos públicos que se han ido otorgando a empresas con dificultades de liquidez. Si me apuras hay otra tercera oleada que será más sutil. Las prórrogas tributarias y los retrasos concedidos a los pagos se irán actualizando y cumpliendo. Cuando eso pase, todo a la vez, el agujero será de tal calibre que cabrá toda la economía productiva española y, potencialmente, la de algunos países de nuestro entorno."

Macroeconomicamente, vivemos a calma que precede a tempestade. Por isso, gostei deste título, "‘Calm before the storm’: UK small businesses fear for their future":

"Economists warn that the UK could see more than 3m people unemployed — a level it has not witnessed since the deep recession of the 1980s.
...
more than four months after the start of lockdown, it is the small business sector that is under the most intense pressure and where many companies are being forced to consider their future.
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a fifth of small firms had less than one month of cash reserves left in May. A quarter of owners had been forced to use their savings to stay solvent; almost a fifth said they were likely to cease trading or may not survive.
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estimates of 3m unemployed were not unrealistic as the government winds down the schemes in the autumn.
“Small firms are the backbone of the economy. It is a more domestically focused part of the economy and the bedrock for our towns and cities, which make them socially and economically important.”"

Voltando ao artigo inicial, não acredito em soluções gerais que passem pela automatização e inovação. Não se pode criar um modelo de desenvolvimento independente das pessoas que arriscam e trabalham no dia-a-dia.

Se macroeconomicamente vivemos a calma que precede a tempestade, microeconomicamente vivemos uma realidade em turbulência. Vivemos milhares de batalhas diárias em que o futuro de cada empresa se decide. Se algumas estiveram protegidas e adormecidas pelos apoios, outras fecharam, mas muitas outras procuram adaptar-se a um mundo novo em evolução ainda mais rápida do que é costume. 

Comecei esta série, "Quantas empresas?" em Fevereiro de 2020 quando, apesar do Covid-19 ainda não ter caído sobre nós, já antevia a importância do sector do calçado se refundar. Com o confinamento, o que era importante passou a ser importante e urgente. Como escrevi em Abril passado, agora todas as PMEs são startups que têm de fazer o percurso:

Por isso, gostei do artigo "Covid-19 Shuttered More Than 1 Million Small Businesses. Here Is How Five Survived.". Descreve 5 realidades distintas, descreve diferentes opções, sugere regras que podem ser seguidas. Cabe a cada gerência avaliar o que faz mais sentido no caso da sua empresa em particular.

"Eden Park Illumination Inc. had one product to sell before Covid-19: an ultraviolet light that distinguished real diamonds from fakes. The spread of a deadly virus across the globe shifted the focus of the tiny Champaign, Ill., startup to another ultraviolet light application that it had not planned to introduce for at least two years. This one would disinfect crowded spaces. Within weeks, the 10-person company began shipping prototypes. Eden Park has since delivered more than 1,000 of the lights and added a dozen workers, including a head of manufacturing. “We have pivoted and put all our attention on this,”
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The coronavirus pandemic is creating new opportunities for some small businesses even as it raises costs and devastates sales for others. It is prompting many to re-examine their strategies and make tough decisions about how to adapt.
One seller of professional and college team sports apparel stuck to what it did best, gambling that gear with logos would still sell during a sports drought. A decades-old furniture maker ramped up efforts to sell online instead of largely relying on its showrooms. A restaurant supplier boosted production of tamper-evident labels for home deliveries. An insurance brokerage sold smaller policies that are less profitable, but easier to get done.
“Firms that are changing now are making changes to survive,”
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What they do after the pandemic ends, she said, “will tell us whether they pivoted or just fought the fire and survived.”
Nearly one-quarter of small businesses have added products or services they believe will sustain long-term growth,
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Here is a look at the choices made—and the lessons learned—by Eden Park and four other small U.S. businesses trying to navigate through the crisis.
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• Focus on what sells

• Stay Focused on What You Know

• It’s Not Too Late to Go Digital

• All Hands on Deck (The struggles reinforced the need to diversify. The company is looking at selling signs and other items to plant nurseries and hospitals. “This has taught us we need to look outside restaurants,” Ms. Smith said. “I think we will come out of this a different company.”)

• Get Simpler and Go Small"

Os milhões da esmola de Bruxelas serão aplicados nos negócios sexy para o governo e famiglia, nos negócios sexy para as universidades. Duvido da sua rentabilidade, pois serão geridos por gente habituada a dinheiro fácil e, por isso, habituada a não fazer contas. Depois, serão milhões que terão de ser pagos através de impostos futuros. Impostos que serão mais um peso às costas dos outros.