“A market economy is never static. Products that are cutting-edge today will soon become commodified and easy to make. Industries that are on the technological frontier will become mainstream and, later, relics of the past. What is a good job today will inevitably become a bad job in the future. This dynamic was first recognized by Karl Marx, who thought that it was evidence of the inherent instability of the capitalist system. Eighty years later, however, the Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter pointed out that instead of being a flaw, this process of “creative destruction” is capitalism’s greatest strength and its engine of growth.Recordo Nassim Taleb: "Stressors are information", são sinais para calibrarmos a quantidade relativa de exploration versus exploitation. Perante os stressors há os que os agarram e, como os ratos do livro "Quem mexeu no meu queijo", interagem com a nova realidade. E há os que, como o Pigarro do mesmo livro, resistem à mudança e solicitam o apoio e a protecção dos governos, gerando toda uma série de doenças por causa do veneno do activismo.
The Princeton economist Alan Blinder recently noted that in the 1950s, companies making television sets were at the heart of America’s high-tech sector and generating tens of thousands of high-paying jobs. After a while TV sets became just another easy-to-make commodity, and today no TV set is made in America. The computer manufacturing industry picked up where the TV industry left off, and for a while it was responsible for 400,000 high-paying jobs. We saw earlier that most of these jobs have now moved elsewhere. But this is not a sign of failure. Indeed, it is a sign of success. To remain prosperous, a society needs to keep climbing the innovation ladder. As Schumpeter argued, it is the dynamic that has been ensuring our prosperity since the beginning of the industrial revolution.
The crucial question for America’s future is therefore whether our innovation clusters can adapt and reinvent themselves to maintain their edge. Clusters, unlike diamonds, are not forever. At some point the industry that supports them matures, stops bringing prosperity, and turns into a liability. The forces of attraction provide an important advantage, but once-mighty clusters have collapsed in spectacular ways.”
Como não recordar logo o exemplo do leite ou do vinho na Madeira? Entretanto, na semana passada vi várias reportagens em que uns coitadinhos pediam apoios porque o aquecimento global lhes queimou uvas e fruta. Admitamos que efectivamente há um aquecimento global em curso, antropogénico ou não. Então, o melhor é estes coitadinhos mudarem de culturas ASAP.
Outro exemplo da economia deficiente. Nos EUA, "Harvard Business School professor: Half of American colleges will be bankrupt in 10 to 15 years". Por cá, tudo será feito para atrasar a mudança, torrando dinheiro impostado/roubado aos contribuintes para manter o status-quo.
BTW: Os romanos tinham vinhas nos Alpes, sinal de que o clima era mais quente que o dos últimos séculos. Imaginem os produtores de vinho suíço a receberem apoios desde há 2000 anos. Que renda!
Excerto de: Enrico Moretti. “The New Geography of Jobs”