"Brexit, we were told, will improve Britain’s trade performance through the depreciation of sterling.Interessante mesmo era alguém pegar neste artigo do FT e com ar de ingénuo chegar junto do bicicletas, ou de Ferreira do Amaral, ou de Vítor Bento, e pedir uma explicação para esta "blasfémia" de exportações que crescem com moeda a fortalecer.
The big difference is currency movements. Sterling has fallen 17 per cent since late 2015 against Britain’s trading partners, a period in which the equivalent measure for Portugal rose 2 per cent. With such stark exchange rate differences, it would be natural to see net trade — exports minus imports — contributing more to Britain’s growth rate than that in Portugal over the past year. UK imports have become pricier and exports more competitive.
But in most recent data comprising the year to the first quarter of 2017, net trade subtracted 0.2 percentage points from the UK’s growth rate while adding 0.5 percentage points to Portugal’s rate. Sterling’s slide has not helped Britain.
Between January and March this year UK output in production industries expanded 2.3 per cent compared with a year earlier, the same rate as the growth in services and less than in construction. British rebalancing towards production is notable for its absence. In Portugal, industrial output grew 4.8 per cent over the same period, considerably faster than the 2.8 per cent overall growth rate. Brexit has not given the UK a more balanced economy.
Surely, at least, the Leave vote has spurred UK companies to broaden their horizons and focus exports outside the EU? Again, no. With the depreciation allowing exporters to raise prices, British export values to the EU27 were 15.5 per cent higher in the year to the first quarter, a more rapid improvement than the 13.8 per cent growth rate to non-EU countries. But compared with Portugal, these figures look disappointing; over the same period its exports to outside the EU grew 33.2 per cent with a 51.6 per cent rise in US exports.
These are the sort of numbers that would have Brexiters salivating, if they related to Britain rather than Portugal."
domingo, agosto 06, 2017
Pedir uma explicação para esta "blasfémia"
Numa introdução mais humorada posso dizer que descobri a identidade secreta do @nticomuna. Só duas pessoas poderiam escrever algo que se escreve neste artigo do Financial Times, "Sterling’s Brexit slide has yet to deliver trade’s sunlit uplands", ou o @nticomuna ou eu. Como não fui eu, ergo ...