"globalization is evolving, not dying"

A propósito de "Is Globalization Dead? A Different View of the Data Says No".

Costumo dizer que já passamos o pico da globalização. Talvez devesse dizer que estamos a assistir a uma mudança de paradigma da globalização. Daí:

"Some economists point to the growing cross-border internet sales as evidence globalization is evolving, not dying.
...
the global economy is still integrating at a steady pace
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Absent some truly cataclysmic shock—something akin to a world war or a depression—the best bet is that globalization will march on.”
...
digital globalization now exerts a larger impact on growth than merchandise goods"

Já quanto à justificação para a redução dos números do comércio, não posso concordar com:

"A substantial portion of the slippage is a decline in commodity prices over the last several years. Although the dollar-value of crude oil traded across the globe plummeted with the price per barrel, the number of barrels traded increased. Along with falling prices of iron ore, wheat and other commodities, “these price adjustments make trade look anemic, but they tell us nothing about the health of globalization,”"

A evolução do Baltic Dry Index e a falência de empresas de carga marítima são um sinal de que algo está a acontecer. E esse algo é que estamos a assistir ao encolhimento da China como fábrica do mundo.