sexta-feira, maio 03, 2013

Curiosidade do dia

"Ni los grandes pensadores saben qué hacer con la crisis"... pode ser o começo de algo interessante, absterem-se de intervencionismo ingénuo:
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Ainda este final da manhã descia a A25 quando ouvi deliciado este trecho:
"What I can say for now is that much of what is taught in economics that has an equation, as well as econometrics, should be immediately ditched—which explains why economics is largely a charlatanic profession. Fragilistas, semper fragilisti!"
Depois, já a subir para Sever de Vouga, apanhei:
"Recall that the interventionista focuses on positive action - doing. Just like positive definitions, we saw that acts of commission are respected and glorified by our primitive minds and lead to, say, naive government interventions that end in disaster, followed by generalized complaints about naive government interventions, as these, it is now accepted, end in disaster, followed by more naive government interventions. Acts of omission, not doing something, are not considered acts and do not appear to be part of one’s mission.
...
I have used all my life a wonderfully simple heuristic: charlatans are recognizable in that they will give you positive advice, and only positive advice, (Moi ici: Claro que me lembrei logo deste coiso) exploiting our gullibility and sucker-proneness for recipes that hit you in a flash as just obvious, then evaporate later as you forget them." 
Depois, já a almoçar uma sandes, o processamento de toda esta informação deu origem a este comentário:
"Deixar de medir o PIB contribuía mais para o crescimento do mesmo do que todas estas ideias de académicos." 
Entretanto, mão amiga, via Tweeter, fez-me chegar a "Nicholas Taleb Against Establishment Economists":
"What once used to be a field in which men of towering intellect tried to establish, discuss and lay down the tenets of what was widely considered an entirely new science as recently as the late 19th century, has become a field in which a great many rather mediocre intellectuals are mainly serving the interests of the State. The classical economists such as Ricardo, for all their flaws, did humanity an invaluable service by showing that there are in fact economic laws and that a ruler cannot suspend them, just as he cannot suspend gravity. The era during which the classical economists dominated the new science was one that saw the implementation of a fairly enlightened economic policy – as close to 'laissez faire' as we ever got – which led to an  enormous spurt in the growth of real wealth and prosperity between the late 19th and early 20th century. We owe a huge debt to this era of capital accumulation and the men who made it possible – without it, the world may be a lot poorer than it actually is."
Perfeito:
"Of course, if an economist rejects interventionism and supports the establishment of an unhampered free market, then there is obviously no role for him as an 'economic planner' and 'adviser to policymakers' (except for advising them to stay the hell out of the economy and stop meddling with it)." 
Eheheh:
"someone causing action while being completely unaccountable for his words. The phenomenon I will call the Stiglitz syndrome," 
Vou ter de ter uma versão em papel do "Antifragility"... já imagino o livro junto à cabeceira durante anos, para ler e reler e voltar a ler.

2 comentários:

CCz disse...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-03/seth-klarman-if-economy-so-fragile-government-cant-allow-failure-then-we-are-indeed-

Carlos Albuquerque disse...

Um sistema monetário é essencialmente uma intervenção.

A política seguida em Portugal é precisamente a dos macroeconomistas.

O défice "admissível" que tudo condiciona é em função do... PIB!

Eheheh