Transformative scenario planning

"First, these people see the situation they are in as unacceptable, unstable, or unsustainable. Their situation may have been this way for some time, or it may be becoming this way now, or it may possibly become this way in the future. They may feel frightened or excited or confused. In any event, these people cannot or are not willing to carry on as before, or to adapt to or flee from what is happening. They think that they have no choice but to try to transform their situation.
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Second, these people cannot transform their situation on their own or by working only with their friends and colleagues. Even if they want to, they are unable to impose or force through a transformation. The larger social-political-economic system (the sector or community or country) within which they and their situation are embedded is too complex - it has too many actors, too many interdependencies, too much unpredictability - to be grasped or shifted by any one person or organization or sector, even one with lots of ideas and resources and authority. These people therefore need to find some way to work together with actors from across the whole system.
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Third, these people cannot transform their situation directly. The actors who need to work together to make the transformation are too polarized to be able to approach this work head-on. They agree neither on what the solution is nor even on what the problem is. At best, they agree that they face a situation they all find problematic, although in different respects and for different reasons. Any attempt to implement a solution directly would therefore only increase resistance and rigidity.
So the transformation must be approached indirectly, through first building shared understandings, relationships, and intentions.
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Transformative scenario planning is, then, a way for people to work with complex problematic situations that they want to transform but cannot transform unilaterally or directly. This way of working with the future can be used to deal with such situations at all scales: local, sectoral, regional, national, or global."

O uso de cenários, o uso de histórias, o uso de narrativas sobre futuros alternativos é uma técnica que as empresas podem usar para melhor se prepararem para um futuro imprevisível. Contudo, o transformative scenario planning é diferente:

"The key difference between adaptive and transformative scenario planning is, then, one of purpose. Adaptive scenario planning (Moi ici: Técnica usada pelas empresas. As empresas partem do princípio que não podem mudar o mundo. São cascas de noz no meio do oceano. Assim, tentam perceber para onde vão as correntes, quais podem ser os ventos e marés) uses stories about possible futures to study what could happen, whereas transformative scenario planning assumes that studying the future is insufficient, and so it also uses stories about possible futures to influence what could happen. To achieve these two different purposes, adaptive scenario planning focuses on producing new systemic understandings, whereas transformative scenario planning assumes that new understandings alone are insufficient and so also focuses on producing new cross-system relationships and new system-transforming intentions. And to produce these two different sets of outputs, adaptive scenario planning requires a rigorous process, whereas transformative scenario planning assumes that process alone is insufficient, and so it also requires a whole-system team and a strong container.
Transformative scenario planning enables people to transform their problematic situation through building a strong alliance of actors who deeply understand the situation, one another, and what they need to do."

Ouvindo os políticos da situação e da oposição, parece-me que esta técnica, "transformative scenario planning", seria muito útil para começarem a preparar um futuro que possam influenciar e, de certa forma, voltarem ao leme dos acontecimentos.
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Trechos retirados de "Transformative Scenario Planning - Working Together to Change the Future" de Adam Kahane