Escolha, acaso e inevitabilidade em estratégia (parte II)

Ainda retirado de "Choice, Chance, and Inevitability in Strategy", este trecho de poesia:
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"1. Causality is a necessary condition for freedom of choice. So as to make strategic choices we must believe them (when acted upon) to be able to change the course of events.
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2. Chance coincidences can open up new avenues fo future choice.
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3. Strategic choice is itself insuficient to account for strategy. Choice, like chance, is a contributing, background-dependent factor.
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4. Causal backgrounds are necessary in order for us to interpret and exploit chance events. After all, chance coincidences are only ever meaningful in the context of a particular causal background"
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"Strategic choice is contingent on causality, on the belief that strategies have causes as well as consequences (Conjecture 1). The significance of causal background secures it a place at the center of our model. It is a necessary condition not just for strategic choice but also for exploiting chance coincidence (Conjecture 4). Clearly, choice alone is not sufficient to account for strategy formation (Conjecture 3). Choice and chance, in turn, leave residues on this causal background insofar as this background reflects past choices and chance coincidences. Strategic choice and chance exist in a relation of sufficiency according to which chance coincidence can, but need not, open up new avenues for future choices (Conjecture 2). Where causal background is sufficient to determine a particular outcome we speak of strategic inevitability."
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Ou seja, os decisores fazem opções, escolhem, por que acreditam que essas decisões influenciarão o curso dos acontecimentos. Os decisores têm de acreditar que as suas escolhas são livres, senão não vale a pena optar. No entanto, acreditam que as suas decisões estão sujeitas a restrições
várias.
Em simultâneo, esses mesmos decisores reconhecem que estão dependentes de variáveis que não dominam. As estratégias emergem como o resultado de interacções não planeadas entre as consequências das escolhas de vários actores por vezes não relacionados entre si.
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Continua com: o oceano, as correntes, as marés, os ventos, a casca de noz, os cenários e as opções estratégicas.