Para reflexão

"El euro puede desaparecer"

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"Econ institutes question euro zone aid to Greece"

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"Greece Says No New Austerity Measures Needed"

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"No prospect of any more German rescues as Portugal hits a brick wall"

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"Greece May Spur German Rethink, Morgan Stanley Says"

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"Portugal deveria ter pronto um pacote de financiamento externo" ("temer que “o Governo português esteja em estado de negação”")

Para reflexão

"The Greek people are being punished for Europe's errors" ("Yet let us be honest. This is not a bail-out for Greece. It is a bail-out for European creditors that account for most of Greece's €391bn external debt (163pc of GDP). As such it is the first line of defence against greater sums at risk across Club Med. The EU rescue shifts the debacle onto taxpayers in order to prevent a systemic crisis, just like the bank bail-outs after the Lehman failure. The question is whether German Landesbanken with wafer-thin capital ratios can withstand a second crisis after losing so much already on US subprime debt.
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Yet the Greeks are being singled out for punishment under the rescue terms. Mr Johnson says they will have to transfer 8pc to 9pc of GDP each year to foreign creditors from 2012 onwards.

No nation will tolerate such debt servitude for long.
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This crisis stems from the original sin of EMU and the collective self-deception that lured debtors and creditors alike into excess. To lecture Greece gets us nowhere. Default will happen one way or another. So will contagion. ")

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"A Greek bail-out at last but no real solution" ("So will this stave off insolvency? It is important to distinguish the near-term insolvency as a result of the failure to roll over existing debt, and the country’s long-term solvency position. This deal, I am confident, will solve the first issue. As I predicted last week, Greece will not default this year. But I am still sticking with my second prediction that Greece will eventually default. The numbers simply look too bad.")

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" Gonzalo Lira: “Systemic Contradictions”: The Eurozone De Facto Currency Peg, and the Death Spiral We Are Currently Witnessing" ("But by the time they all realize that the GR-€ is destroying their economies—much like the dollar-peg in ’82 trashed the Latin American economies—it will be too late. The European Union will be wrecked, much as Latin America was wrecked in ’82. And that crisis ushered in all sorts of foolish craziness in many many places.

God Alone knows what will happen once the Eurozone is wrecked.

We are currently watching this wreckage—we just don’t realize it. Greece is not an aberration—it’s not even the canary in the coal mine: It’s the beginning. The GR-€ is wreaking havoc on all the other countries of the Eurozone, starting of course with the weakest, Greece. But it won’t end there—far from it. The GR-€ will take out, in no particular order, Portugal, Italy, Spain, until it eventually hits France.

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Reuters is reporting that a “senior [Greek] official” said that, over the next three years, Greece will need an additional €40 billion—this is, on top of the €30 billion that were pledged today by Europe and additional €10 by the IMF.

In other words, THIS YEAR’S bailout for Greece is €40 billion, while 2011 and 2012, they’ll need an ADDITIONAL €40 billion.

That is, €80 billion ($108 billion) to tide Greece over until 2012—just Greece. Nobody else. €80 billion to salvage an economy whose nominal GDP for 2009 (according to Wikipedia) was €250 billion.")
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"Greece Saved For Now - Is Portugal Next?" ("The Portuguese therefore are not at all out of the woods. If they do not start making serious moves towards cutting their deficit, they are next for a test. (Moi ici: Pois, depois digam que a culpa é de Miguel Frasquilho)
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Surely the eurozone will bail Portugal out also - but where would it stop after that? The stronger Europeans, by coming to Greece's rescue at this time with little conditionality, are effectively showing all the weaker nations that they too can get a package.")

Para reflexão

"Greece and the Fatal Flaw in an IMF Rescue" (Greece's 2010 "austerity" program is striking only for its lack of credibility. Under that program Greece, even in 2010, does not pay the interest on its debt - instead the government plans to raise 52bn euros in credit markets to refinance all its interest while at the same time it borrows 4% of GDP more. A country's "primary budget" position measures the budget without interest expenses -- at the very least, the Greeks need to move from a 4% of GDP primary budget deficit to a 9% of GDP primary surplus - totalling 13% of GDP further fiscal adjustment, in the midst of what will be a massive recession, just to have enough funds to pay annual interest on their 2012 debt. This is under the rather conservative assumption that interest rates would settle near 6% per year, where they stand today. The message from these calculations is simple: Greece needs to be far more bold if its austerity program is to have a serious chance of success.) (Moi ici: 6% já foi ultrapassado ontem!!! Chegou aos 7.161% e fechou a 7.040%)

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"Rates Rise as Fear Returns on Greece"

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"Spain Is Getting Its Economic Vision From Peggy Lee and Frank Sinatra"

Para reflexão

"The IMF should impose default on Greece to end the charade" (Porque é que não há políticos que laem assim, claro e de forma transparente como Ambrose?)

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"When the value of complexity turns negative, a society plagued by an inability to react remains as complex as ever, right up to the moment where it becomes suddenly and dramatically simpler, which is to say right up to the moment of collapse. Collapse is simply the last remaining method of simplification." (Se vivêssemos há 300/400 anos ou menos, este era o momento para que as sociedades mais precavidas, invadissem as sociedades menos precavidas para lhes saquear o imobiliário e alargar o poder. Chega-se ao ponto em que, já nem há dinheiro para pagar o soldo a quem defenda a sociedade da invasão) (aqui)

Há qualquer coisa que não bate certo

"Grecia amenaza con incumplir el plan de ajuste si la UE no sale al rescate"

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""Si tenemos que seguir endeudándonos con tipos de interés muy altos, y éste es el problema que tenemos, no podremos mantener la reducción del déficit, que queremos conseguir con estas severas medidas"."

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Há qualquer coisa que não bate certo neste discurso... se a Grécia não reduzir o deficit ainda vai pagar taxas de juro mais elevadas. Não percebo a lógica...

A coisa está a ficar preta...

“Bolsa de Atenas afunda 4% e risco da dívida grega dispara”

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“Alemanha atira responsabilidade de salvar Grécia para o FMI”

“Euro escorrega com tragédia grega”

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“Grécia pede ajuda financeira aos líderes europeus”

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“Juros da dívida grega a dois anos disparam 32 pontos base”

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“Atenas lança novo "SOS" à Europa”

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“German Calls for Austerity Have Europe Grumbling”

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“Greek worries return to unsettle investors”

Abençoada Grécia

"Analysten zeigten sich besonders über diesen Teil des Sparplans enttäuscht. „Wir denken, dass das zu vorsichtig ist“, sagte Tullia Bucco vom Bankhaus Unicredit."

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"Auch Portugal schwenkt auf Sparkurs um"

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"the plan is somewhat heroic, based on probably unrealistic growth forecasts and is much too timid when it comes to the public sector"

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"As such he thinks Portugal will probably lose its A- rating from S&P.

Sovereign risk, it seems, is still alive and kicking…"

O pau finalmente vai chegar...

Os gregos estão atordoados com a bordoada que acabaram de levar "Gregos em estado de choque com medidas de austeridade".

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Uma boa altura para recordar este postal "Enquanto o pau vai e vem folgam as costas... pero todavia, o pau há-de chegar" e perguntar aos mais admirados "Estavam à espera de quê?"

Nada contra o Estado, tudo pelo Estado!

"Isto é: não façamos nada e daqui a dois anos estamos com estatísticas tão más ou piores do que a Grécia"
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""Afirmações apocalípticas, como as que foram feitas pela drª Manuela Ferreira Leite, além de não reflectirem a realidade económica e financeira do país, também prejudicam a credibilidade externa do país. "
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As Vestais rasgam as vestes horrorizadas... se fosse no Israel do Antigo Testamento vestiam-se de saco, cobriam a cabeça de cinza e arrancavam a barba.
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ADENDA: Até parece que o ministro Vieira da Silva vive em Hogwarts; "Nem vou citar, só de citar" ... já atrai a maldade daquele cujo nome não deve ser mencionado.
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Voltando a Hogwarths, o ministro Vieira da Silva criticou, como se fosse uma blasfémia, as palavras de MFL sobre um futuro hipotético.
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Quando Vieira da Silva fala do futuro, lembro-me sempre desta frase de antologia que o define:
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"Acham que a função de um Governo é estar a antecipar uma evolução negativa para a qual não tem ainda nenhum dado que o confirme? Se o estivesse a fazer, seria um profundo erro."

Se calhar vai ser um Armagedão!

"O presidente da agência de notação Fitch pôs hoje no mesmo patamar a situação na Grécia, em Portugal e Espanha, numa entrevista à rádio francesa Europe 1 citada pela agência AFP.
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O presidente da agência, Marc Ladreit Lacharrière, fez aquele paralelo ao considerar que não existe risco de contágio a outros países da zona euro da crise que actualmente atravessam a Grécia, Portugal e Espanha, pressionados pelos mercados financeiros a reduzir os seus défices públicos."

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Não seria assim tão peremptório!

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Evans-Pritchard não é imparcial mas números são números:

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"Barclays Capital says the net external liabilities of Greece are 87pc of GDP, or €208bn (£182bn). Spain is worse at 91pc (€950bn), and Portugal worse yet at 108pc (€177bn); Ireland is 68pc (€123bn), Italy is 23pc, (€347bn). Add East Europe's bubble and foreign debts top €2 trillion.

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The scale matches America's sub-prime/Alt-A adventure and assorted CDOs and SIVS of the Greenspan fling. The parallels are closer than Europe cares to admit. Just as Benelux funds and German Landesbanken bought subprime debt for high yield with AAA gloss, they bought Spanish Cedulas because these too had a safe gloss – even though Spain's property boom broke world records. They thought EMU had eliminated risk: it merely switched exchange risk into credit risk.
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A fat chunk of Club Med debt has to be rolled over soon. Capital Economics said the share of state debt maturing this year is even higher in Spain (17pc) than in Greece (12pc), though Spain's Achilles' Heel is mortgage debt."

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Muita gente vai espernear, muito tempo se vai perder, para, por fim, sob imposição externa seguir o que já se sabe:

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"But there is a reasonable model in the case of Ireland, a country that has corrected most of its mistakes and has embarked on the slow slog back. Greece, Portugal and Spain will be forced to follow that example."

Medina Carreira afinal era um optimista

"Greece will be told this week to cut public sector wages and improve tax collection under a European Union initiative to prevent its financial troubles from destabilising the eurozone.

The European Commission will recommend on Wednesday that Greece’s socialist government should “cut average nominal wages, including in central government, local governments, state agencies and other public institutions”, according to a draft proposal."

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Trecho retirado de "EU call for Greece to cut public sector pay"

Abençoada Grécia

"Alemanha garante que Grécia tem o “apoio total” da UE" título enganador e carregado de wishfull thinking português, se os gregos forem ajudados nós também seremos ajudados.

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Prefiro a serenidade e conhecimento de Edward Hugh "Greek Bailout News (1)"

Não somos a Grécia!

Repete o ministro Teixeira dos Santos.

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Izabella Kaminska do FT Alphaville e a equipa do BNP Paribas’ FX também concorda, não somos iguais aos gregos...

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Somos mais arriscados que os gregos:

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"Inner EMU spreads have continued to widen discouraging EUR investment as Europe no longer offers a homogenous bond market. The inner EMU competitive gap will remain an issue, but the surprising finding on this side is that the Spanish and Portuguese real effective exchange rate is higher than the Greek EUR, suggesting that markets might soon turn their focus to Spain and Portugal (See Chart 1).
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This would put the EUR crisis into a new dimension, as Greece is only 3% of European GDP, while Iberia’s weighting is almost 20%. Europe’s periphery will have to reduce its competitive gap to keep EMU functioning."

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Trecho retirado daqui.