sábado, maio 25, 2024

Foi um choque para mim

"Entre janeiro e abril, de acordo com os dados divulgados esta terça-feira pela Informa D&B, um total de 722 empresas portuguesas iniciaram um processo de insolvência, mais 86 do que em igual período do ano passado. Corresponde a uma subida de 14%, provocada sobretudo pelo setor industrial (+90%).

"O aumento do número de processos de insolvência neste setor foi muito concentrado nas empresas de Têxtil e Moda (+176%; +88 processos de insolvência), nomeadamente nas atividades de fabricação de calçado (+513%; +41 processos de insolvência) e confeção de outro vestuário exterior em série (+145%; +32 processos de insolvência)", detalha a consultora."


Na economia, como no desporto, o que conta é o presente e o futuro. O passado, por mais glorioso que tenha sido, já passou:

"So who was the winner? What was the best strategy in the end? What Lindgren found was that this is a nonsensical question. In an evolutionary system such as Lindgren’s model, there is no single winner, no optimal, no best strategy. Rather, anyone who is alive at a particular point in time, is in effect a winner, because everyone else is dead. To be alive at all, an agent must have a strategy with something going for it, some way of making a living, defending against competitors, and dealing with the vagaries of its environment.


Likewise, we cannot say any single strategy in the Prisioner’s Dilemma ecology was a winner. Lindgren’s model showed that once in a while, a particular strategy would rise up, dominate the game for a while, have its day in the sun, and then inevitably be brought down by some innovative competitor. Sometimes, several strategies shared the limelight, battling for “market share” control of the game board, and then an outsider would come in and bring them all down. During other periods, two strategies working as a symbiotic pair would rise up together – but then if one got into trouble, both collapsed.
We discovered that there is no one best strategy; rather, the evolutionary process creates an ecosystem of strategies – an ecosystem that changes over time in Schumpeterian gales of creative destruction."

Isto a propósito de "Obrigado, Mr. Porter". 

Continuo a acreditar neste trecho que citei em 2006:

"… there are no “sunset” industries condemned to disappear in high wage economies, although there are certainly sunset and condemned strategies, among them building a business on the advantages to be gained by cheap labor"

No entanto, hoje estou muito mais ciente do que acontece no entretanto: menos empresas, empresas com muito menos trabalhadores. Descobrir os Flying Geese e Reinert foi um choque para mim.


Trecho retirado de "Vestuário e calçado impulsionam subida dos processos de insolvência em Portugal

Sem comentários: