Ando a ler o livro "The End of the World is Just the Beginning" de Peter Zeihan.
O autor cenariza o mundo futuro com base em duas variáveis: O fim da Ordem Americana que permite o comércio international, e o colapso demográfico em muitas partes do mundo.
No final do ano passado podia-se ler:
- O drama sem fim da escassez da mão de obra qualificada [Moi ici: Leio o artigo e fico a pensar numa certa ingenuidade da autora... como se fosse uma questão de condições de trabalho, apenas. Sim, isto aplica-se, mas é muito mais profundo ...]
- Falta de mão de obra põe economias desenvolvidas em “guerra” por migrantes
Entretanto, ontem encontrei isto, "Where have all the workers gone? Don't blame COVID, economists say", e o seu conteúdo alinha-se muito com o livro de Zeihan.
"Boomers are exiting the workforce in droves, leaving more job vacancies than there are people to fill them....Canada is in the throes of a serious labour shortage, but economists say it's not all the pandemic's fault — it's the inevitable culmination of a seismic demographic shift decades in the making."It's the slowest-moving train on the planet. It was predictable 60 to 65 years ago, and we have done nothing about it," said Armine Yalnizyan, an economist and Atkinson Fellow on the Future of Workers. "We knew this transition was going to happen."...In particular, the construction and manufacturing sectors are having a difficult time recruiting skilled workers, followed closely by accommodation and food services, which includes hotels, restaurants and bars."People are finding other places to work. There just aren't enough people willing to do poorly paid jobs that are marginal at best," Yalnizyan noted."Workers have a lot more choices now," Lee agreed. "If you have more choices and you don't have to work in that industry, you'll go and work in an industry where there's a better career stream and where the wages are higher and the hours are more predictable.""
Alinho isto com este trecho retirado do livro de Zeihan:
“Nobody would expect the worker who plugs in the relatively low-tech wiring to be compensated at the same rate as the worker who fine-tunes the sensors. Imagine if all the pieces were made in Japan, a country with a per capita income of some $41,000. That System on a Chip would be pretty fly—and it should be, the Japanese excel at complex microelectronic work—but it stretches the mind to think there might be some Japanese dude who loves to run an injection mold system to make phone cases for a dollar an hour. It would be like Lady Gaga teaching piano lessons to four-year-olds. Could she do it? Certainly. I bet she’d do great. But no one is going to pay her fifty grand for an hour of her trouble”
Fica tão claro o modelo Flying Geese. E fica clara a aprendizagem dos dinamarqueses acerca da contribuição líquida dos imigrantes para a sua segurança social:
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