segunda-feira, junho 17, 2019

Consequências não lineares

"Let’s turn to the numbers. Usually, slightly more than 20% of the value of goods Americans buy from abroad are made in China. But in the first four months of this year, China’s share slipped by more than two percentage points. (The value of total US imports barely budged.)
So what countries are stepping in to fill the void? Mexico and Vietnam have benefited the most, followed by South Korea and Taiwan, according to data from the International Trade Commission.
That said, signs of a more permanent supply chain rejiggering abound. Foreign investment in Vietnam and Thailand has surged since the beginning of this year, notes SocGen. Foxconn, which supplies Apple, is now gearing up iPhone X production in India. More recently, the company made moves to start producing in Vietnam, joining a slew of other smartphone accessory makers and suppliers.
The backstory, however, is important here. In many cases, the trade war isn’t so much triggering a China manufacturing exodus as it is accelerating a shift in supply chains that was already well underway. China’s working-age population began shrinking back in 2012. Wages are now nearing levels in advanced economies. And low-wage workers are getting harder to find—let alone retain.
The suddenness of the factory flight out of China might make it sound like ditching the country is a no-brainer. But for smaller companies that lack Samsung’s clout with suppliers, it’s not. Having spent years nestling their businesses around China’s rich supply chain, these firms can find themselves facing painful tradeoffs."
Temperar isto com a estória do banhista gordo, esta evolução vai dar origem a consequências oblíquas, consequências não lineares.

Trechos retirados de "The trade war is already pushing businesses out of China—and it could be permanent"

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