"For the perishable, every additional day in its life translates into a shorter additional life expectancy. For the nonperishable like technology, every additional day may imply a longer life expectancy." (1)Efeito Lindy:
"Lindy is a deli in New York, now a tourist trap, that proudly claims to be famous for its cheesecake, but in fact has been known for the fifty or so years of interpretation by physicists and mathematicians of the heuristic that developed there. Actors who hung out there gossiping about other actors discovered that Broadway shows that lasted, say one hundred days, had a future life expectancy of a hundred more. For those that lasted two hundred days, two hundred more. The heuristic became known as the Lindy Effect." (2)Para explicar isto:
"E-book sales plunged 17% in the UK in 2016 and 18.7% in the US over the first nine months of 2016. Sales of physical books went up significantly during the same period." (3)Mongo é tudo menos linear.
"Num momento em que gurus e futurologistas garantiam que a tecnologia ia virar do avesso a edição, que os livros digitais iam pôr fim ao papel, Vale manteve-se impassível, recusou as propostas que lhe foram feitas pelos grandes grupos, e venceu a crise, crescendo nunca menos de 5% a cada ano." (4)BTW, nesta entrevista a Francisco Vale apreciei o pensamento estratégico e o desmascarar do problema das empresas grandes sem paixão.
(1) - The surprising truth: Technology is aging in reverse
(2) - An Expert Called Lindy
(3) - Publishers say e-book sales dropped in 2016 with readers going back to physical books
(4) - Francisco Vale. "Os intelectuais estão hoje à defesa face a esta rebelião das massas"
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