Balanced Scorecard: Um outro olhar sobre os números das exportações

quinta-feira, outubro 17, 2013

Um outro olhar sobre os números das exportações

Olhando para os dados das exportações de bens do Boletim da Economia Portuguesa, publicado em Setembro último e com dados até Julho, podemos afirmar o seguinte:

Uma afirmação corrente é dizer que a maioria deste crescimento homólogo das exportações se deve aos combustíveis:

Ou seja,

69% do crescimento das exportações deve-se às exportações de combustíveis.
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Números são números!
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Contudo há algo que não bate certo...

Como é que sem combustíveis as exportações só crescem 1,2% quando, no mesmo período, as exportações de:

agro-alimentares cresceram 8,0%
químicos cresceram 5,5%
madeira, cortiça e papel cresceram 3,0%
peles, couros e têxteis cresceram 5,2%
produtos acabados diversos cresceram 5,8%

Então, reparo no desempenho das exportações de "material de transporte"!

E se descontarmos o efeito das exportações de "material de transporte", qual é a percentagem de crescimento dos outros sectores nas exportações?

Em que:

A - Energéticos (combustíveis)
B - Material de transporte

Só assim se explicam, por exemplo, os bons números das exportações via portos como o de Aveiro.
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Já fico mais satisfeito com esta interpretação dos números.
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Mas já agora, lembram-se dos títulos do blogue da Ana Sá Lopes e do blogue do Nicolaço?

....
Façamos então mais uma análise, e se descontarmos o efeito das exportações de "Minérios e metais"?

C - Minérios e Metais

Assim, sorrateiramente, sem que os radares genéricos o captem, o perfil das exportações vai-se alterando.

Uma boa notícia para o próximo ano é esta "Venda de carros novos na Europa regista maior ganho em dois anos", apesar de, em minha opinião, o automóvel já ter atingido o seu pico na Europa, a demografia, a consciência ecológica das novas gerações e o sucesso dos novos modelos de negócio baseados na partilha e aluguer vão impor-se cada vez mais. Se esta tendência de curto-prazo pegar, a da notícia do JdN, vai ajudar bastante as exportações nacionais do próximo ano.
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E apesar das exportações de "Material de transporte" estarem "mancas", "Portugal entre os países da UE onde as exportações mais aumentaram"

5 comentários:

Ricciardi disse...: Um bom post ccz.
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As exportacoes excluindo os combustiveis (q tem uma margem reduzidissima) nao subir grande coisa.1,2% é mto pouco.
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A dependencia do sector automovel da autoeuropa é assustador. E nao augura nada de bom, já q a qualquer altura se pode por ao fresco. Penso q tem um peso relativo de 10%.
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A analise q devia ser feita é outra. Perceber se o preço de venda unitario dos produtos vendidos ao exterior estão a subir ou nao. Se estamos realmente a acrescentar mais valor aos produtos ou se estamos num estado de sobrevivencia a vender ao desbarato para nao fechar.
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No calçado existem esses numeros q demonstram bem q a dinamica é positiva pois o preco de cada sapato tem vindo a subir fruto do engenho dos nossos criativos, emprsarios, enegenheiros de qualidade.
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Nos outros produtos nao me parece q isso aconteça, nomeadamente no sector das bebidas e agroalimentares cuja receita global diminui apesar do aumeno nas exportacoes o q na pratica revela q estao a ganhar menos dinheiro.

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Vista a coisa em termos mais amplos, verificamos q a posicao de Investimento Internacional, a PII, está a agravar-se todos os meses nao obstante a balanca comercial melhorar. Isto é, as responsabilidades q temos ao exterior estao cada vez piores em face das disponibilidades que temos sobre o exterior. Um dos factores pode ter a ver com as margens de comercializacao reduzidas, provavvelmente, algumas, em claro prejuizo.
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Eu posso dar nota q importei mta mercadoria de Portugal para o exterior fora da UE e negociei preços com os fornecedores nacionais q me indicam q eles nao ganham dinheiro. No caso dos vinhos e dos enlatados por exemplo.
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Rb; 17 de outubro de 2013 às 10:15
Manuel Galvão disse...: Exportar a preços de custo operacional é uma prática banal. Tem o mérito de diluir os custos fixos permitindo aumentar as margens de venda no mercado nacional. O pior é que traz menos riqueza para dentro das fronteiras.; 17 de outubro de 2013 às 14:35
CCz disse...: Caro Ricciardi,

O que conta é bem verdade e de cortar o coração, a dificuldade das empresas portuguesas em subir na escala de valor.; 17 de outubro de 2013 às 23:24
CCz disse...: Caro Manuel Galvão,

O que diz funcionava bem no passado quando a exportação era uma coisa pontual... até extraordinária. Agora, quando passa a ser algo previsível e ordinário, essa táctica é perigosa, porque as exportações deixam de ser um bónus extra mas tão importantes como as vendas para o mercado interno.; 17 de outubro de 2013 às 23:26
CCz disse...: "#1 KPI in firms: How much money have you left on the table? Timesheets or cost accountants can't answer this question."

@ronaldbaker; 18 de outubro de 2013 às 07:20

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quinta-feira, outubro 17, 2013

Um outro olhar sobre os números das exportações

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