quinta-feira, outubro 15, 2009

Futurizar, cenarizar

No blogue de Don Sull encontro este postal "Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide":
.
E acerca da matéria-prima para cenarizar e futurizar destaco estes factores:
.
"Complexity refers to the number of and interactions among forces that influence value creation. While waiting for a flight in the Copenhagen airport, I used the The Economist, Financial Times, and Wall Street Journal, to generated the following list of factors that could shape the opportunities and threats a firm faces.
  • National government (nationalization, privatization, intellectual property regime, fiscal stimulus, demand stimulus, bailouts, banking regulation, tax policy, trade agreements);
  • Technology (alternative energy, stem cells, cloud computing, open source, nantotechnology);
  • Competition (industry consolidation, emerging market competitors, industrial clusters, government-owned enterprises, industrial ecosystems);
  • Global finance (currency crises, non-bank banks, sovereign wealth funds, microfinance, repatriation of funds, financial innovations, Basel III);
  • Macroeconomics (cycles, stagflation, hyperinflation, exchange rates, interest rates, hot money);
  • Labor (emerging market workers, immigration, urbanization, outsourcing, regional labor markets, unions, aging population);
  • Energy and raw materials (price volatility, security concerns, underwater sources, genetically modified food, reclamation and recycling);
  • Geo-politics (terrorism, war, nuclear weapons, regional zones, WTO, supranational legal agreements);
  • Physical environment (climate change, water shortages and reclamation, pandemics, urbanization);
  • Normative shifts (sustainability, rethinking capitalism, God is back, corporate social responsibility, Internet privacy concerns).
Two things to note about this list: It is long, and it is incomplete. The more variables that matter, the more vulnerable a firm is to changes from an unexpected direction. It is not only the sheer number of forces influencing a firm’s performance, but the interactions among them that increase complexity."
.
Quais os factores que podem influenciar o futuro da nossa organização?
.
Para cada um dos factores, quais as alternativas mais plausíveis que podem concretizar-se no futuro?
.
Agrupar as alternativas para cada factor por universo de coerências. Descrever o cenário, o mundo para cada um desses universos, criar uma narrativa sobre como será e como funciona esse mundo.
.
Para cada um desses universos, qual a estratégia mais adequada para ter sucesso?
.
Há muita incerteza e os cenários são muito extremados?
.
Qual a estratégia mais robusta? A que funciona melhor na maior parte desses universos?

Sem comentários: