Enquanto a Procura for muito menor do que a Oferta vamos ter: deflação; desemprego a subir; confiança a descer (os estímulos governamentais estão a ajudar a mantê-la); falências a subir..
Ontem, Evans-Pritchard escreveu no Telegraph sobre o tema do rácio da Procura sobre a Oferta: "There's no quick fix to the global economy's excess capacity":
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"Excess plant will hang over us like an oppressive fog until cleared by liquidation, or incomes slowly catch up, or both. Until this occurs, we risk lurching from one false dawn to another, endlessly disappointed.
Justin Lin, the World Bank’s chief economist, warned last month that half-empty factories risk setting off a “deflationary spiral”. We are moving into a phase where the “real economy crisis” bites deeper – meaning mass lay-offs and drastic falls in investment as firms retrench. “Unless we deal with excess capacity, it will wreak havoc on all countries,” he said.
Mr Lin said capacity use had fallen to 72pc in Germany, 69pc in the US, 65pc in Japan, and near 50pc in some poorer countries. These are post-War lows. Fresh data from the Federal Reserve is actually worse. Capacity use in US manufacturing fell to 65.4pc in July"
Este rácio é o busílis da questão na economia real...
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Será que isto vai de alguma forma ajudar?
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