sexta-feira, maio 29, 2009

Modelos mentais, experiência de vida e tomada de decisões (parte II)

Continuado da parte I.
"What is it that sets off these alarm bells inside your head? It’s your intuition, built up through repeated experiences that you have unconsciously linked together to form a pattern.
A “pattern” is a set of cues that usually chunk together so that if you see a few of the cues you can expect to find the others. When you notice a pattern you may have a sense of familiarity—yes, I’ve seen that before! As we work in any area, we accumulate experiences and build up a reservoir of recognized patterns. The more patterns we learn, the easier it is to match a new situation to one of the patterns in our reservoir. When a new situation occurs, we recognize the situation as familiar by matching it to a pattern we have encountered in the past."
Este exemplo que se segue ajuda a pôr o assunto em perspectiva:
"Quality control specialists may be frustrated to see trainees studying parts specifications but unable to identify subtle flaws in the product. The ability to detect patterns is easy to take for granted but hard to learn.
Some of the leading researchers in psychology, including the Nobel laureate Herbert Simon, have demonstrated that pattern recognition explains how people can make effective decisions without conducting a deliberate analysis.
Once we recognize a pattern, we gain a sense of a situation: We know what cues are going to be important and need to be monitored. We know what types of goals we should be able to accomplish. We have a sense of what to expect next. And the patterns include routines for responding—action scripts. If we see a situation as typical then we can recognize the typical ways to react. That’s how we have hunches about what is really going on, and about what we should do about it.
Intuition is the way we translate our experiences into judgments and decisions. It’s the ability to make decisions by using patterns to recognize what’s going on in a situation and to recognize the typical action script with which to react. Once experienced intuitive decision makers see the pattern, any decision they have to make is usually obvious."
Sem experiência de vida, quem decide não tem há sua disposição uma biblioteca de padrões onde pode procurar encaixar as pistas que a realidade transmite.

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