Modelos mentais, experiência de vida e tomada de decisões (parte I)

Iniciamos hoje, aqui, mais uma série de reflexões. Na sequência dos postais sobre os 3 amigos, a linguagem de carroceiro e os senhores 5%, viramos a agulha para o papel da intuição, dos modelos mentais e da experiência de vida, na tomada de decisões.
.
A nossa base será um interessante livro sobre a intuição, "The Power of Intuition" de Gary Klein, o primeiro extracto é:
.
"Remember what you were taught about the right way to make important decisions? You were probably told to analyze a problem thoroughly, list all your different options, evaluate those options based on a common set of criteria, figure out how important each criterion is, rate each option on each criterion, do the math, and compare the options against each other to see which of your options best fit your needs. The decision was simply a matter of selecting the option with the highest score.
.
This is the classical model of decision making, and there is something very appealing and reassuring about it. It is based not on whims or hunches, but on solid analysis and logic. It is methodical rather than haphazard. It guarantees that you won’t miss anything important. It leaves nothing to chance. It promises you a good decision if you follow the process properly. It allows you to justify your decision to others. There is something scientific about it.
The whole thing sounds very comforting. Who would not want to be thorough, systematic, rational, and scientific?
.
The only problem is that the whole thing is a myth. The reality is that the classical model of decision making doesn’t work very well in practice."
...
"Practically anybody who has even limited experience making tough decisions, in practically any field, realizes that formal analytical decision making doesn’t work very well in practice. Most real-life decisions are simply not amenable to this approach. Even when we try to keep an open mind and consider several options, we usually know from the beginning which option we really prefer, so the whole process becomes a charade in comparing what we know we want to two or three other made-up distracters."
...
"So how do we make decisions? Well, largely through a process based on intuition."
...
"Why is a customer late with a payment? You have a hunch that the customer may be having a cash flow problem. Is a contract going well? The reports and expenditure rates look fine but you aren’t picking up any signs of excitement from the project team. Maybe you should look more deeply into it."
.
Continua... e isto vai chegar não só aos senhores 5% mas também às empresas e aos esforços de documentação e procedimentação e de automação