sábado, abril 11, 2009

O peso da dívida

"aggregate demand is the sum of GDP plus the change in debt. Now that our economy is utterly debt-dependent, the debt-financed asset-price bubbles have burst, and debt de-leveraging has begun in earnest, the economy will tank and unemployment will explode as debt-financed spending evaporates."
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"With the debt contribution to demand now plummeting, unemployment will rise to levels that are unprecedented in the post WWII period–and they may even rival the Great Depression.
Attempts to inflate our way out of this via either government spending or quantitative easing will also fail.
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The sheer scale of private debt de-leveraging swamps the government’s pump priming, while there is so much debt relative to government created money that the latter will have to be increased by astronomical amounts–and given to those in debt, rather than to the banks–to counter the collapse in demand caused by private deleveraging."
...
"even if governments maintained the scale of fiscal stimulus they are now imparting, there would still be the reality (for the USA, the UK and Australia, and some European nations) that, courtesy of the globalisation of production, they no longer have the productive capacity to employ those who are going to be thrown into unemployment via this debt-driven collapse"
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Trechos lúcidos de Steve Keen no seu blogue Who’d a thought it? Unemployment leaps 0.5% in a month

3 comentários:

ematejoca disse...

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Bom Domingo de Páscoa para si, ccz, e toda a sua família.
Abraço pascual da Teresa.

Avó Pirueta disse...

Alô, Teresa! Boa Páscoa para ti também. Quem meus filhos beija, minha boca adoça. Beijinho da Avó Pirueta

Avó Pirueta disse...

Olá, meus Queridos. Santa Páscoa. Tenho saudades. Beijos.