Cenários e desalavancagem: quando é que o governo vai dar o braço a torcer?

Interessante ler este artigo do The McKinsey Quarterly "Leading through uncertainty" assinado por Lowell Bryan e Diana Farrell, onde na página 6 se encontram 4 interessantes cenários que resultam das combinações entre:

• recessão global severa e recessão global moderada; e
• crédito global e mercado de capitais reabrem e recuperam e crédito global e mercado de capitais fecham e mantêm-se voláteis.

É interessante conjugar estes cenários com as palavras sobre a estratégia futura da GE:
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"G.E. Capital executives explained that they will not only cut business lines and merge units to reduce costs, but they were fundamentally changing how they measured the unit’s profitability.
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Speaking on the conference call, Michael Neal, chief executive of GE Capital, said they have shifted the business toward a focus on return on assets, or R.O.A., from return on equity, or R.O.E. “The businesses that tend to attract more debt for the amount of net income they produce, more bank-like, if you will, are less attractive in our model going forward.”
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At the heart of the strategy is a plan to deleverage the unit’s enormous balance sheet, so that it can turn a profit without taking on so much debt. GE Capital expects to lower its leverage ratio from a current eight to one to a more conservative six to one in the coming year.
This shift will be costly to carry out and will force G.E. to jettison many business lines that have served it well in the past. "