Modelos para explicar a realidade

Ontem recebi a revista TIME, ao ler o artigo "No Grain, Big Pain", não pude deixar de fazer as seguintes associações:

1. "But prices are spiking for several reasons: rising long-term demand in countries such as China and India, where millions of increasingly prosperous people are eating more;"
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2. "short-term supply shocks thanks to unusually cold weather and pest infestation in Vietnam, the world's second largest supplier of rice; and the diversion of a huge chunk of America's corn crop to ethanol production, which has boosted demand for other staples, including rice."
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3. "A November cyclone in Bangladesh ravaged the fall crop, destroying some 800,000 metric tons of rice and forcing the country to import an extra 2.4 million metric tons from India simply to stave off famine. In Vietnam, bad weather and pest outbreaks hurt harvests."
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4. "rice production is not keeping pace with demand from surging Asian populations. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that worldwide rice consumption increased 0.9% last year, to nearly 424 million metric tons. Production increased less than 0.7%. "This has been coming on for several years now," Zeigler says, noting that global stocks are at their lowest point in decades.. " "
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5. "Zeigler blames a lack of investment in agriculture. In much of Asia, rice farming remains small-scale and inefficient. In Thailand, for example, average yields are less than half that of either Chinese or U.S. farms."
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6. "At the same time, Asia's rapid urbanization has gobbled up fecund farmland. In Vietnam's Bac Ninh province, 12 miles (19 km) from downtown Hanoi, shimmering emerald paddy fields are now bisected by a four-lane highway."
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Agora, tenho de pegar na figura e transformá-la num conjunto de ciclos (loops), para fechar e ligar o consumo com a produção.
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Nem de propósito, este artigo que encontrei na net "Japan's hunger becomes a dire warning for other nations".
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Como ouvi na semana passada no Rádio Clube Português, muitas vozes vão começar a pedir apoios para que em Portugal se aumente a produção de cereais.
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Os sinais que apanhamos aqui, também se apanham noutros países. Será que os terrenos portugueses podem competir com um aumento da capacidade produtiva alemã, francesa, espanhola? Julgo que não.
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Ao apostar na produção de cereais, que outras culturas serão abandonadas? Será que podemos criar e aproveitar vantagens competitivas com algumas delas?