quarta-feira, dezembro 22, 2010

A evolução da ideia de mosaico estratégico (parte IV)

Continuado daqui: parte Iparte II. e parte III.
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Interessante como o meu conhecimento empírico comanda a pesquisa em torno da confirmação/rejeição das teorias que levanto para explicar a realidade concreta que experiêncio e que contradiz a narrativa oficial lisboeta dos media tradicionais.
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Vai parecer uma divergência do espírito desta série:
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"Precis of How Much Does Industry Matter?"
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"“it is important to recognize that 80 percent of the variance in business-unit profitability is unrelated to industry or share effects. While industry differences matter, they are clearly not all that matters.”
If this intra-industry variance is due to transient disequilibrium phenomena, then the “classical focus on industry” would still be a contender; although it explains only 8 percent of the variance, it would be the only stable pattern in the data. But, if a large portion of the intra- industry variance is due to stable differences among business-units within industries, then the “classical focus on industry” may be misplaced.
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In this study, I find that the majority of this “residual” variance is due to stable long-term differences among business-units rather than to transient phenomena. Using Schmalensee’s sample, I find that stable business-unit effects account for 46 percent of the variance.
Indeed, the stable business- unit effects are six times more important than stable industry effects in explaining the dispersion of returns. Business-units differ from one another within industries a great deal more than industries differ from one another. (Moi ici: Era importante que mais gente percebesse e incorporasse esta frase nos seus modelos mentais. Quais as suas implicações para, por exemplo, encarar as recentes 50 medidas do Governo?)
The conceptual conclusions are straightforward. The “classical focus on industry analysis” is mistaken because these industries are too heterogeneous to support classical theory. It is also mistaken because the most important impediments to the equilibration of long-term rates of return are not associated with industry, but with the unique endowments, positions, and strategies of individual businesses"
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"1. The neoclassical model of industry as composed of firms that are homogeneous (but for scale) does not describe 4-digit industries: these data show real industries to be extremely heterogeneous.
2. The simple revisionist model in which business-units differ in size due to differences in manufacturing efficiency is incorrect—only a small portion of the large observed variance among business-unit effects can be associated with differences in relative size.
3. Theoretical or statistical explanations of business-unit performance that use industry as the unit of analysis can, at best, explain only about eight percent of the observed dispersion among business-unit profit rates.
4. Theoretical or statistical explanations of business-unit performance that use the corporation as the unit of analysis can, at best, explain only about two percent of the observed dispersion among business-unit profit rates.
5. Theoretical or statistical work seeking to explain an important portion of the observed dispersion in business-unit profit rates must use the business unit (or even less aggregate entities) as the unit of analysis and must focus on sources of heterogeneity within industries other than relative size."
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Mas não é uma divergência! É uma pergunta: Como justificar estas diferenças persistentes entre empresas do mesmo sector de actividade?
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Por que é que a empresa A com rentabilidade menor que a empresa B, no mesmo sector de actividade, não se renova, não se transforma para copiar a empresa B?
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Uma pequena porta para a resposta que aí virá "Causal Ambiguity, Complexity, and Capability-Based Advantage":
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"A central proposition in strategy is that firms sustain relative performance advantages only if their existing and potential rivals cannot imitate them In this context, “imitation” means the purposeful endeavor to improve performance by copying the form and strategy of a superior rival. An imitation strategy is one of many ways two firms may become similar in appearance and performance"
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Continua.

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