"The choice for a sure bet"

"people overwhelmingly opt for certainty, regardless of whether that certainty is in the present or the future, or whether it pertains to gains or losses. Interestingly, these findings break with a foundational theory of behavioral economics first outlined in 1979.
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Prospect theory, as it’s known, asserts that when there is something to be gained, we tend to choose certainty over uncertainty.
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These contrasting preferences have been replicated hundreds of times by hundreds of researchers across myriad contexts, which is why Hardisty and Pfeffer were puzzled by results at odds with the theory’s predictions. By injecting temporal considerations into the equation, the researchers found that even when people face losses, they favor certainty over uncertainty.
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“People really don’t like the complexity and cognitive load of making decisions under uncertain circumstances,” says Pfeffer. The choice for a sure bet, he says, may be the mental equivalent of shrugging in resignation."

Trechos retirados de "Why Uncertainty Makes Us Less Likely to Take Risks"

Citações que dão que pensar

"A leader's job is to reduce uncertainty, not create it."


Autor: Jeffrey Pfeffer



Brilhante! Esta frase consegue condensar tanta, tanta coisa...

A bad system can make a genius look like an idiot

A propósito do artigo "Prémios de desempenho fracassaram na OCDE" do DN de hoje, onde se pode ler:

"Os sistemas de remuneração associada ao desempenho dos funcionários públicos que foram sendo adoptados por vários países desenvolvidos desde meados da década de 80 falharam os seus objectivos."

Lembrei-me logo deste texto "Jeffrey Pfeffer Testifies to Congress About Evidence-Based Practices" do qual saliento este trecho que recorda uma experiência de Deming:

"In his famous "red ball, white ball" demonstration, Deming would randomly select a participant from one of his lectures and have the person sit in front of a covered urn filled with red and white balls. Deming would tell the individual to pull only white balls out of the urn, since the reds were considered defects. When the person pulled a red ball, Deming would note that perhaps the incentives weren't sufficient, and would put money on the table and tell the person he or she could have it if they continued to draw white balls without drawing a red. When a red ball would invariably be drawn, Deming would then comment that perhaps punishment was necessary, and would smack the individual with a ruler the next time a red ball was drawn. The simple, but frequently, overlooked point is that systems produce performance, not individuals. "

Por fim, o dedo na ferida:

"Tinkering with pay appears to be easier than fixing organizational cultures and leadership capabilities. It is apparently "fashionable" because it does not seem to require the systemic intervention along multiple dimensions implied in the idea of building high performance work arrangements. But there is no free lunch. Isolated, disconnected interventions often work at cross purposes with other aspects of management practice. And there is little evidence that isolated interventions can profoundly affect organizational performance. "

Como abordado aqui: "'Bad systems do far more damage than bad people, and a bad system can make a genius look like an idiot. "