Curiosidade do dia

Lembram-se do que Martin Wolf escrevia no tempo da crise das dívidas soberanas? Pois ...

"Turn, turn, turn"

Ontem no FT escreveu "The UK government must make sure it isn't a confidence killer". Estranho, por cá ninguém fala disto mas os investidores na dívida soberana confiam menos no actual governo do que no governo de Liz Truss.

"Interest rates have risen across the G7. Even in Germany, the yield on the ultralong 30-year Bund rose by 290 basis points between January 15 2021 and January 15 2025. In the US, the rise was 300 basis points, and in France 350 points. Alas, the rise in UK yields was the highest in the G7, at 440 basis points.

...

In sum, UK yields on long-term debt have risen by more and reached higher levels than in peer countries. Yields on 30-year gilts were even 56 basis points higher than Italy's on January 15. Moreover, while UK yields had risen 78 basis points in the previous year, Italy's did not rise at all. That is embarrassing.

...

In brief, the UK's situation is fragile. The government needs to retain the confidence of its creditors. It is crucial not to adopt policies that raise doubts about its good sense. How taxes were raised in the Budget did just that. So, too, do regulatory developments, notably in the labour market. The government will have to toughen its stance on current spending in its coming review or consider higher taxes.

The UK must focus on resilience and growth. Panic is unnecessary, but the era of cheap borrowing is over. Policy has to respond."

Como não pensar em Janan Ganesh e Joaquim Aguiar.