Imigrantes: efeitos positivos e negativos (parte II)

No Domingo passado publiquei aqui no blogue a parte I sem intenção de publicar uma parte II.

Entretanto, durante a caminhada matinal de Segunda-feira ouvi ""Society Is A Ponzi Scheme" - Warning On Population Collapse & Hopeless Generation". Ao minuto 16 Eric Weinstein cita um artigo que terá escrito. Fui à procura de tal artigo. Fácil de encontrar, "Migration for the benefit of all" (escrito em 2001).

Em "2.2.2 Long-term native shortages" encontro:

"wage depression in targeted occupations can set up a positive feedback loop. [Moi ici: Aquilo a que chamei de crowding-out dos trabalhadores locais na parte I] As more migrants are targeted on a particular field which is failing in its bid to attract native workers, wages will increasingly fall short of competitive offerings, causing an acceleration of native flight towards non-targeted fields. This curious cycle is sometimes seen as a 'native worker shortage', though the term seems particularly Ill suited to describe a problem of employers which is ultimately self-inflicted. What may in fact begin as a simple temporary "spot shortage' of trained native workers, can in fact be made considerably more permanent by the attempting a quick fix from migrant labor.

Any program which imports migrants into a sector whose employers are complaining of insufficient trained natives, can be expected to exacerbate (rather than alleviate) its native shortage. Rather than raising incentives to entice new workers to seek training to fill the empty slots, visas are likely to be used to avoid the needed market response. Even if visa fees are put towards training programs to bring more natives to enter the sector, the existing native workers may respond by fleeing the sector even more quickly, leading to a potential exacerbation of the spot shortage."

Parte I - "Imigrantes: efeitos positivos e negativos"