Mais do que com a Peste Negra

Peter Zeihan chamou-me a atenção com uma comparação brutal: Nas próximas décadas a China vai perder mais gente (em %) do que a Europa com a Peste Negra.

No WSJ de ontem:

"When China launched its one-child policy more than four decades ago, it sped up an evolution toward smaller family sizes that would have happened more gradually.

The policy supercharged the country's workforce: By caring for fewer children, young people could be more productive and put aside more money. For years, just as China was opening its economy, the share of working-age Chinese grew faster than the parts of the population that didn't work. That was a big factor in China's economic miracle.

There was a price and China is now paying it. Limiting births then means fewer workers now, and fewer women to give birth.

A United Nations forecast published on Thursday shows how quickly China is aging, a demographic crunch that the U.N. predicts will cut China's population by more than half by the end of the century."

Trechos retirados de "China Pays Price for Its One-Child Policy"