segunda-feira, maio 29, 2023

Past performance is no guarantee of the future

"Survivor bias is the trap of only considering the successful entries when thinking about risk. For example, if you look at the performance of mutual funds after ten years, most of them seem to do pretty well. But that's partly because the ones that did really poorly didn't make it to ten years.
We are lucky enough to live on a planet that hasn't been destroyed by an asteroid. But that doesn't mean that other planets haven't had their life forms extinguished-we're simply unaware of them.
Past performance is no guarantee of the future. Sorry.
We should plan accordingly."

Trecho retirado de "Survivor bias and the mistake of stability.

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