Antes de mais, recuo neste blogue:
- It's not the euro, stupid! (parte IV) (Dezembro de 2011)
- O que acho caricato (Julho de 2016)
- Pena os Estados Unidos terem aderido ao euro (Agosto de 2016)
- E Trump foi eleito (Novembro de 2016)
"The impact of international trade on labour markets is a classical question that is currently subject to greater interest.
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In this paper, we approach this topic from a novel perspective. In contrast to earlier research, we study the indirect effects stemming from the increased competition that one country can generate in the export markets of other economies, focusing explicitly on the effects of China's exports. In other words, China may affect the labour market of country A not only because of its exports to that country; such effects can also emerge by reducing the exports of country A to country B when China increases its exports to country B. [Moi ici: A mensagem que abre It's not the euro, stupid! (parte I)] In our study, we propose different measures of this indirect effect and analyse their labour market effects.
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Our empirical evidence on both the direct and indirect labour market effects of China's emergence in international trade is based on the case of Portugal. As a (small) open economy with a comparative advantage profile more comparable to that of China than most other developed economies, Portugal is an interesting country not only to revisit the direct relationships examined in the literature but also to illustrate the largely undocumented indirect effects that we study here.
Portuguese imports from China grew strongly over the period 1993-2008, reaching a level in 2008 that was more than eleven times higher than that of 1993. A different direct impact, also examined as a robustness exercise, comes from the enhanced export opportunities to China. Over this period, Portuguese exports to China grew strongly, but are still around six times smaller than Portuguese imports from China in 2008, suggesting that the impact of the export channel should be smaller. At the same time, the share of total employment in manufacturing in the country nearly halved over the period that we consider (1993-2008). and economic growth during this period was low (except for 1996-2000). [Moi ici: Recordar os gráficos de It's not the euro, stupid! (parte IV) ou de O desassossego é bom!]
On top of the direct effects, stemming from much larger increases in exports from China to Portugal than the other way around, Figure 2 highlights the potentially intensified competition from China faced by Portuguese firms in terms of exports to the other 14 original member states of the European Union (EU14).
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The rise of the export share of China in the EU14 market was also much stronger than the increase of China's share in Portuguese goods imports. Hence such a strong increase in competition in a key destination market like the EU14 can have a big impact in the Portuguese manufacturing sector, possibly larger than the effect of direct import competition, [Moi ici: Só não estou de acordo com o "possibly"] unlike for other countries with different exporting profiles.
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larger increases in the EU14 market shares of China’s exports tend to be associated with larger losses in the market shares of Portuguese exports."
By the way, ainda ontem escrevi em Por alma de quem? e em Novembro passado em A grande reconfiguração sobre o efeito do reshoring na inflação actual. Interessante ler neste artigo:
"study the effects of increased Chinese trade exposure on earnings and employment of US workers from 1992 to 2007. Their findings suggest that workers employed in industries that were subsequently exposed to greater Chinese import competition experienced lower cumulative earnings. [Moi ici: Bom momento para recordar as parvoíces políticas tugas, quando lhes tremem as pernas, Acham isto normal? Ou a inconsistência estratégica! Ou jogar bilhador como um amador! de Agosto de 2009. O artigo cita uma série de estudos nos Estados Unidos, Alemanha, Finlândia, Dinamarca e Reino Unido, todos concluindo acerca do forte impacte chinês no emprego, e sua qualidade, dos trabalhadores com menos habilitações]
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for Portugal, we find that a rise, from the bottom to the top quartile, of an industry’s exposure to Chinese indirect import competition in a group of 14 EU countries is associated to a drop of 25% in workers' cumulative wages and a 17.4% reduction in employment years.
The negative labour market effects of increased trade exposure to China are robust to a number of tests but are also heterogeneous across individuals. The impact falls disproportionately on older workers, females and workers without tertiary education. Moreover, the negative effects are also stronger for individuals working in larger, older and domestic-owned firms." [Moi ici: Quanto maiores, menos flexíveis para um golpe de asa estratégico, com mudança de clientes-alvo, mudança de proposta de valor, subida na escala de valor. Perfeitamente alinhado com a minha experiência. Recordo o gráfico "Evolução do n° de trabalhadores nas empresas de calçado em Portugal" deste postal de 2010, O choque chinês num país de moeda forte (parte II). No entanto, julgo recordar que em alguns países (México?), quanto maiores as empresas, mais protegidas da concorrência chinesa]
Trechos retirados de "Collateral Damage? Labour Market Effects of Competing with China--at Home and Abroad"
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