"Specifically, the shift to online retail is real, and much of it will stick. In the United States, the penetration of e-commerce was forecast in 2019 to reach 24 percent by 2024; by July 2020, it had hit 33 percent of total retail sales. Eric Lamarre and Kate Smaje, “Accelerating digital capabilities to recover from the COVID-19 crisis,” July 21, 2020. To put it another way, the first half of 2020 saw an increase in e-commerce equivalent to that of the previous ten years. Arun Arora, Hamza Khan, Sajal Kohli, and Caroline Tufft, “DTC e-commerce: How consumer brands can get it right,” November 2020. In Latin America, where the payments and delivery infrastructure isn’t as strong, e-commerce use doubled from 5 to 10 percent. In Europe, overall digital adoption is almost universal (95 percent), compared with 81 percent at the start of the pandemic. In normal times, getting to that level would have taken two to three years. Strikingly, the biggest increases came in countries that had previously been relatively cautious about shopping online. Germany, Romania, and Switzerland, for example, had the three lowest online-penetration rates prior to the COVID-19 crisis; since then, usage increased 28, 25, and 18 percentage points, respectively—more than in any other markets."
Dado o efeito de stickiness, quem experimentou venceu a barreira da ansiedade e do hábito. Como será o efeito de histerese nas vendas online?
"A questão de saber se haverá um efeito de histerese é muito interessante. Este é o nome de um fenómeno na Física em que um impulso temporário tem um efeito permanente."