quarta-feira, janeiro 16, 2019

Dar a volta

Chamada de atenção: isto foi escrito com base em empresas grandes, não com base em PMEs.
"To study corporate transformation and its success factors, we analyzed financial and nonfinancial data of all U.S. public companies with $10 billion or more market cap between 2004 and 2016. We identified companies with a demonstrated need for fundamental change, namely, those companies with an annualized deterioration, relative to their industry average, in total shareholder return (TSR) of 10 percentage points or more over two years.
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Our analysis reveals that leaders must be ready to transform their companies: At any given point in the 12-year period we studied, 32% of all large companies were experiencing a severe deterioration in TSR, and that share has stayed roughly constant in recent years. We also found that successful recovery from a severe episode of deterioration is the exception rather than the norm: [Moi ici: Como não pensar nas palavras de Nassim Taleb: "Systems don’t learn because people learn individually –that’s the myth of modernity. Systems learn at the collective level by the mechanism of selection: by eliminating those elements that reduce the fitness of the whole, provided these have skin in the game"] Only one-quarter of the companies were able to outperform their industry in the short and long run after the point of deterioration. Moreover, transformations appear to be getting somewhat riskier over time, as the rate of success fell from approximately 30% in 2001 to 25% by 2012. This pattern of frequent failure in turnarounds is striking.
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As might be expected, our analysis found that organizations that successfully recovered from severe TSR deterioration relied on cost-cutting as a principal driver during the first year of their turnaround effort. ... to get a transformation off on the right foot, simply cutting costs is not enough. Leaders also must regain investor confidence, by telling a convincing story about how they will leverage their newfound flexibility for future success.
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revenue growth is the primary driver of long-run success. While cost-cutting and investor expectations are necessary to ensure transformation viability in the short term, after year one of a transformation, our research reveals that revenue growth becomes an increasingly important driver of TSR success.
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[Moi ici: O trecho que se segue é precioso] Thus, transformation efforts cannot focus solely on short-term, operational improvements. They also must introduce a new strategy for growth, the “second chapter” of transformationThe second chapter requires that leaders challenge the foundations of the company’s business model, create a new vision for growth, and commit to see the program through. This is especially important in an era of secular change, when companies cannot rely on a cyclical bounce-back to restore performance, but instead, must learn how to thrive in a new environment. [Moi ici: De acordo com a experiência que tenho com PMEs. Muitas vezes é preciso encolher, mas isso só serve para deixar de cavar o poço. A partir daí é preciso encontrar um novo mecanismo de "fazer dinheiro" - "The next big thing"]
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Multivariate analysis revealed that transforming companies with an above-average long-term strategic orientation (as determined by a natural language-processing algorithm) outperformed those with a below-average orientation by 4.8 percentage points. This finding was even more pronounced when transforming companies were operating in turbulent environments. In such environments, a long-term orientation is associated with a TSR increase of 7 percentage points.
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on average, external hires performed better in the long run during transformation (+4.5 percentage points TSR impact, controlling for other factors). That said, we also noted that outsiders had a wider range of positive and negative outcomes than internal hires. This suggests that transforming companies should carefully consider their risk tolerance before selecting a new leader from outside the organization."
Há dias li esta frase de Marchionne:
“When you’re broke, you change your ways a lot faster.” 

Trechos retirados de "The Truth About Corporate Transformation"

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