Estratégia e humanos

"It is hard to study competitive strategy. As a result, we don’t know much about what actually works.
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We don’t lack anecdotes and stories. A business goes under, we get an instant autopsy. A business takes off, we get an instant reverse-engineered recipe. That’s entertaining but not rigorous.
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There’s plenty of evidence about what’s profitable to have.
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There’s much less evidence about how businesses can get what’s profitable to have."
O autor relata o que aprendeu até agora com a realização de uma simulação, um torneio onde os participantes podem fazer uso da sua capacidade de formular estratégias:

• "People selected different strategies in the three industries. [Moi ici: Formular uma estratégia é uma actividade eminentemente idiossincrática] ... 

• People specified their goals — profitability, market share, or a combination— differently in the three industries  [Moi ici: Diferentes pessoas valorizam diferentes objectivos] ....

• Some people selected their strategies saying they wanted to achieve high profits without regard to market share. Others adopted precisely the same strategies saying they wanted to achieve high market share without regard to profits. ...

• Everyone chose the strategies he or she thought best. If they thought a different strategy would be better, they’d have chosen that. However, the range of outcomes their strategies produce is very wide. That suggests people find it hard to tell the difference between a good strategy — i.e., one that will get them what they want — and a bad strategy. ...

In my experience running business war games and real-time strategy simulations, people tend to think move by move. They speak of it as fine-tuning their strategies, but I think it’s more accurate to say they react to perceived events. I suspect that that’s a reason why people had such variation in their Tournament results: many are used to reacting, not to strategizing.  [Moi ici: Um trecho profundo e a merecer reflexão. Muitas vezes também encontro este comportamento. E, nós humanos, somos tão bons a arranjar justificações para enquadrar estas reacções no âmbito de uma certa estratégia]
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Until we know what works – or perhaps until we’re more comfortable and skilled at letting computers test and appraise strategies for us, but that’s a different discussion – human strategists must continue to react, guess, and gamble with competitive strategy. No experiment and no computer will find a (legal) strategy guaranteed to work.  [Moi ici: Convém nunca esquecer esta realidade. As estratégias vencedoras são sempre transientes, são sempre transitórias. O que é verdade e funciona hoje, deixa de funcionar amanhã] But we don’t need perfection. It takes only a few percentage points to separate the casino from the gambler."

Trechos retirados de "A Tournament Pits Strategists Against Each Other to See What Works"