quarta-feira, julho 28, 2010
Cainesianismo abatido pela demografia?
Depois de Edward Hugh e Claus Vistesen abordarem e disseminarem o tema, eis Bill Gross de volta ao tema:
"Keynesianism Kapitulates To Kondoms? Bill Gross Suggests The Demographic Growth Crunch Will Put Keynesian Policies To Rest":
"Demographics – or in this case population growth – is so long term in its influence that economists and observers are inclined to explain the functioning of economic society without ever factoring in the essential part that it plays in growth. Production depends upon people, not only in the actual process, but because of the final demand that justifies its existence. The more and more consumers, the more and more need for things to be produced. I will go so far as to say that not only growth but capitalism itself may be in part dependent on a growing population."
"The danger today, as opposed to prior deleveraging cycles, is that the deleveraging is being attempted into the headwinds of a structural demographic downwave as opposed to a decade of substantial population growth. Japan is the modern-day example of what deleveraging in the face of a slowing and now negatively growing population can do."
Anda na minha cabeça uma teoria mal amanhada que me impele a fazer o paralelismo com a queda do Império Romano e o colapso demográfico que se lhe sucedeu.