domingo, junho 21, 2009

And another feedback loop

"Recent global prosperity was founded on a series of elegant Ponzi schemes.
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Consumption rather than investment drove growth, especially in the developed world. A deregulated financial system supplied the borrowing to finance the consumption. In the new economy, to borrow from Earl Wilson, there were three kinds of people — "the haves", "the have-nots" and "the have-not-paid-for-what-they-haves".
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Like consumption, growth in global trade was also fuelled by debt. Since the 1990s, there has been a substantial build-up of foreign reserves in the central banks of emerging markets and developing countries that became the foundation for a trade-financing arrangement.
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To maintain export competitiveness, many global currencies, including the yuan, were pegged to the dollar at an artificially low rate. This helped create the US trade deficit driven by excess US demand for imports based on an overvalued dollar.
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Foreign central bankers invested the dollars received from exports in US debt to minimise the appreciation of their domestic currency that would make their exports less competitive. The recycled dollars flowed back to the US to finance the spending on imports, helping keep US interest rates low and facilitating more borrowing to finance further consumption and imports"
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Retirado de "The End of the Age of Plentiful Debt"

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