Nas costas dos outros vemos as nossas

A capa do Jornal de Negócios de hoje tem uma caixa, com a foto do ministro das finanças, onde se lê: "Emissão de dívida pública de curto prazo imune ao corte do "rating" da República".
.
O pormaior que me escapou numa primeira leitura foi aquele "curto prazo".
.
Escreve o jornal na página 23:
.
"A justificar o bom resultado estará o facto de, dada a elevada aversão ao risco no mercado, os investidores estarem a procurar mais títulos de dívida pública e, em especial, títulos de curto prazo (maturidade até um ano).
.
O teste de fogo para a dívida pública portuguesa terá, contudo, lugar no primeiro leilão de títulos com maturidade de cinco ou dez anos (Obrigações do Tesouro), sobre os quais os investidores têm maiores reservas."
.
O que me preocupa, sabendo que somos governados por gente que gasta mais do que pode (quer da situação, quer da oposição) é saber que a Espanha tem um risco inferior a Portugal e, no entanto:
.
"And the centre is having problems, as we saw in the case of yesterday's €7bn 10 year treasury bond auction (Tuesday) which produced a Spanish yield differential jump at its highest level since the euro came into existence - 137 basis points above the equivalent German Bunds. More ominously, foreign investors were notably absent, leaving Spanish banks to soak up the debt. Which makes all that nonsense Spanish people have been seeing on their TV screens this week about how the banks are not lending enough to households and businesses seem even more ridiculous, since it is the needs of the government itself which is increasingly "crowding out" all the rest."
.
Ainda: durante anos ouvi estórias da minha irmã, estórias carregadas de 'inveja', onde me contava como o dinheiro para o Ambiente em Espanha nunca faltava, nunca era rateado, enquanto que do lado de cá ...
.
Pois bem:
"Another minor but revealing anecdote about all this came my way yesterday afternoon, when a friend of mine who works for the municapal authority in one of Barcelona's "sattelite towns" told me she had just had a frustrating day trying to buy a ticket for a trip to Brussels (you know, to sign something, and appear in the photo) for one of their civic dignitaries. Now the travel agents were quite happy to make the reservation, and prepare the ticket. What they were not willing to do was hand it over. As they said to her "I'm afraid you can only have it after you pay". She was bemused by all this - it isn't really her job to do this kind of thing - so she went to see the responsible parties in the accounts department (the flight is the day after tomorrow) and to her amazement they told her "right now this is impossible, tell them we can let them have the money within two weeks"
.
Mês após mês... as afirmações peremptórias de Manuela Ferreira Leite, há mais de seis meses vão-se confirmando uma após outra. Por exemplo, o escândalo que foi quando disse "Não há dinheiro!"
.
Vejamos Espanha:
.
"So - with budget GDP growth estimates which consistently underestimate the size of the contraction, and tax revenue falling as unemployment payments rise (onde é que nós já vimos isto?) - little by little the money is drying up, and this isn't surprising, since Spain can't print its own euros, and so, given the difficulties of borrowing them externally, liquidity becomes very, very tight. Not desperately so yet, but tight. But it is obvious that if things carry on like this we will begin to see a gradual grinding to a halt of the public sector, and all those "functionarios" and pensioners who have so far been very carefully protected from the crisis will find themselves more exposed to the full force of the crunch."(Oopss!!! Isto não pode transpirar cá em Portugal, há três eleições à porta durante este ano)
.
E que tal:
.
"Of course, there is another way to go here, we could decide to reduce prices and salaries in the public sector (ie internal deflation as an alternative to devaluation), and bring the budget more back into line with Spain's ability to pay. This is what they seem to be doing in Ireland, although, even there, the prime minister allegedly threatened to call in the IMF if the public sector unions failed to agree on the spot to a five percent salary reduction."
.
Este postal de Edward Hugh é preocupante e quiçá premonitório:
.
"But the debate which is going on in Spain (Portugal acrescento eu) about the current crisis is still light years away from the country's rapidly evolving reality, so the question which keeps going round and round in my head is: just how long will it be before some crazy politician out there in one of Spain's minor autonomous communities starts proposing to issue regional IOUs/quasi money of the Argentinian type. If and when this does happen, then we will know that the end is well and truly begining (ie that the point of no return has been passed), and if you like we could treat such a hypothetical event as an early potential indicator of impending disaster."
.
Ah, e BTW:
.
"No serious politician can threaten the banks in this way and hope to maintain investor confidence. Maybe even more worrying is the fact that Zapatero has not already "corrected" him. This kind of statement is a declaration of weakness and not one of strength."
.
Trechos retirados de The (Credit) Drought In Spain Falls Mainly On The Plane