Primeiro, Nassim Taleb conta a história de Anteu, muito forte quando estava em contacto com o chão (ou a Terra, a sua mãe), e muito fraco se fosse levantado ao ar:
"like Antaeus, you cannot separate knowledge from contact with the ground. Actually, you cannot separate anything from contact with the ground. And the contact with the real world is done via skin in the game –have an exposure to the real world, and pay a price for its consequences, good or bad. Most things that we believe were “invented” by universities were actually discovered by tinkering and later legitimized by some type of formalization."Não pude deixar de relacionar esta estória de Anteu com o tema das sanitas da passada sexta-feira.
Segundo, Nassim Taleb martela nos neocons usando aquilo que há anos chamo aqui de amadores a jogar bilhar:
"O que acontece é que os políticos tomam as decisões, como eu jogo bilhar… quando jogo bilhar só consigo jogar a pensar naquela jogada. Um profissional do bilhar quando pensa na jogada que vai fazer, equaciona e prepara já o terreno para as jogadas seguintes."Versus:
"these interventionistas not only lack practical sense, and never learn from history, but they even make mistakes at the pure reasoning level, which they drown in some form of semi-abstract discourse. The first flaw is that they are incapable in thinking in second steps and unaware of the need for it –and about every peasant in Mongolia, every waiter in Madrid, and every car service operator in San Francisco knows that real life happens to have second, third, fourth, nth steps."Terceiro, algo que me fez lembrar o que aprendi com Deming com o jogo/experiência do funil:
"And when a blow up happens, they invoke uncertainty, something called a Black Swan, not realizing that one should not mess with a system if the results are fraught with uncertainty, or, more generally, avoid engaging in an action if you have no idea of the outcomes."Almas gémeas!
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