sábado, dezembro 22, 2012

Quando a mudança é descontínua... não há tradição que salve os incumbentes

Pelo vistos, um dos artigos de 2012 da The Economist mais vistos na internet foi "The last Kodak moment?". Vale a pena ler para perceber como um Golias complacente, confiante na longa sucessão de vitórias, pode cair.
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Entretanto, em "Custom Nation" descubro a Shutterfly:
"When Silicon Valley entrepreneur Jim Clark started Shutterfly in December 1999, his idea was to give American consumers the ability to print photographs from their digital cameras. Back then only a tiny number of Americans had digital cameras. With a simple two-megapixel camera costing as much as $800, its not hard to see why. But Jim was convinced that the world would switch to digital: in retrospect, his prediction couldn't have been more prescient.
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Around 2004, when it became clear to everyone (and not just Jim) that Americans were, in fact, swapping film for digital, hundreds of companies rushed into the digital photo printing space.
At the time, Shutterfly was far from a household name. The company had just $50 million in annual revenue in 2004 and was barely turning a profit. Meanwhile, Kodak—the age-old king of American photography—had, by 2005, surged to the No. 1 spot in U.S. digital camera sales and was pulling in $5.7 billion annually. Back then, if you had to bet on which company would be filing for bankruptcy protection in 2012, the smart bet would have been Shutterfly by a mile. But, of course, history tells a different story.
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Although Kodak had embraced digital cameras, the company failed to see what people would want to use them for. Kodak kept thinking consumers would still want standard 4 x 6 photographs. In 2005 Shutterfly hired eBay's customer acquisition guru. Jeffrey Housenbold, to take over as its new CEO. Jeff had a different idea, which he told me when I spoke to him in the spring of 2012:
When I walked in [as CEO of Shutterfly], we were largely undifferentiated from the competition. It was all about 4 x 6 prints and price. We were not helping people do more with their images and memories. We were much more along the old paradigm, which was: Drop off a roll of film, develop prints and place them in clear sleeves for users to put in a binder on a bookshelf. I brought a different perspective and said, "My wife and I use Shutterfly to stay connected in this dual-income, geographically fragmented, time-compressed society where we have friends and family all over the world." I thought of it as a social connection and a way to share life's memories with friends and family.
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Shutterfly dropped the "photo printers" tagline and started calling itself an "Internet-based social expression and personal publishing service." And while Kodak remained focused on the old 4 x 6 photo for the bookshelf binder, Shutterfly turned its eye to more customized and lucrative products like custom calendars, custom greeting cards, custom photo books, custom mugs and custom mouse pads. The company also started putting an enormous value on gaining the trust and loyalty of their customers. Unlike many of its competitors, Shutterfly never deleted a single photo its users uploaded, regardless of whether that customer bought anything. As Jeff said, We have always had this customer-centric approach, where it is not about photos and it is not about this month's revenue. It is about a lifelong relationship."
Jeff's vision paid off. In January 2011 Shutterfly became one of the world's first true customizers to break the $1 billion mark for a public company valuation. Soon after, in January 2012, the less customizing Kodak filed for bankruptcy protection: two months later, the once-iconic photo company sold its online arm, the Kodak Gallery (complete with 75 million users), to Shutterfly for $23.8 million."
Ainda ontem, num jantar de Natal alguém comentava exemplos do mercado em que actuava, uns afundam-se e outros crescem e crescem e crescem. Voltando ao modelo de Ian McCarthy:
Bastou à Shutterfly estar atenta e trabalhar duas vertentes, a mudança descontínua na "Procura" e nos "Produtos"...
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Quando a mudança é descontínua... não há tradição que salve os incumbentes.




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