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Fiquei preso quando li logo no início aquele:
"Companies need to start this task with the end in mind.A preciosa lição que há muitos anos aprendi com Stephen Covey.
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Entretanto, ao final do dia, durante o jogging ouvi a parte final de "Decisive" de Chip e Dan Heath onde o tema da viagem ao futuro voltou a aparecer:
"Even if we have a pretty good guess about the future, the research on overconfidence suggests that we’ll be wrong more often than we think. The future isn’t a point; it’s a range:.
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How can we learn to sweep a broader landscape with our spotlights—to attend to the bookend of possibilities ahead? Psychologists have actually created some simple tools for exactly this purpose.
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It is November 2020 and something historic has just happened: The United States has just elected its first Asian American president. Think about all the reasons why this might have happened.
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Russo and Schoemaker have found that when people adopt the second style of thinking—using “prospective hindsight” to work backward from a certain future—they are better at generating explanations for why the event might happen. You may have experienced this yourself. The second scenario feels a bit more concrete, offering firmer cognitive footholds.
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Prospective hindsight seems to spur more insights because it forces us to fill in the blanks between today and a certain future event (as opposed to the slipperier process of speculating about an event that may or may not happen).
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A postmortem analysis begins after a death and asks, “What caused it?” A premortem, by contrast, imagines the future “death” of a project and asks, “What killed it?” A team running a premortem analysis starts by assuming a bleak future: Okay, it’s 12 months from now, and our project was a total fiasco. It blew up in our faces. Why did it fail?
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When we bookend the future, it’s important to consider the upside as well as the downside. That’s why, in addition to running a premortem, we need to run a “preparade.” A preparade asks us to consider success: Let’s say it’s a year from now and our decision has been a wild success. It’s so great that there’s going to be a parade in our honor. Given that future, how do we ensure that we’re ready for it?"
Trechos retirados de "Decisive" de Chip e Dan Heath
