Não faz sentido torrar dinheiro dos contribuintes futuros a estimular a economia

"Most macroeconomists work with what they call "equilibrium models" - the idea is that a modern market economy is fundamentally stable. That is not to say nothing ever changes but it grows in a steady way.
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To generate an economic crisis or a sudden boom some sort of external shock has to occur - whether that be a rise in oil prices, a war or the invention of the internet.
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Minsky disagreed. He thought that the system itself could generate shocks through its own internal dynamics. He believed that during periods of economic stability, banks, firms and other economic agents become complacent. [Moi ici: Recordar "Uma preocupação genuína"]
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They assume that the good times will keep on going and begin to take ever greater risks in pursuit of profit. So the seeds of the next crisis are sown in the good time.[Moi ici: A metáfora da exuberância... Recordar "Mais uma vítima da exuberância no tempo das vacas gordas" ou "A biologia é um manancial de lições sobre a economia"]"

Por isso é que, quando rebenta a crise, não faz sentido torrar dinheiro dos contribuintes futuros a estimular a economia, ela não consegue suportar a estrutura produtiva que ergueu no tempo das vacas gordas. Se não há dinheiro do Estado metido na criação da bolha, a bolha rebenta e a recuperação natural virá mais rapidamente do que se pensa. Se há dinheiro do Estado... fica tudo minado.

Trecho retirado de "Did Hyman Minsky find the secret behind financial crashes?"

Minsky

Artigo muito, muito actual "Why capitalism fails".

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O título é que ainda me consegue surpreender... há gente que ainda acredita que uma criação humana não tem falhas... até parece que nunca foram filhos, ou nunca idolatraram o Pai até à idade em que descobriram que afinal não era um super-homem.

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"As people forget that failure is a possibility, a “euphoric economy” eventually develops, fueled by the rise of far riskier borrowers - what he called speculative borrowers, those whose income would cover interest payments but not the principal; and those he called “Ponzi borrowers,” those whose income could cover neither, and could only pay their bills by borrowing still further. As these latter categories grew, the overall economy would shift from a conservative but profitable environment to a much more freewheeling system dominated by players whose survival depended not on sound business plans, but on borrowed money and freely available credit."

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E até que alguém aperte os cordões à bolsa, e até que a sociedade como um todo bata estrondosamente contra o muro da realidade, a maioria vai continuar a acreditar que é possível viver, como sociedade, mais um ano à custa de crédito (Rabelais 'pintou' mesmo bem Pantagruel).

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"The preferred mainstream tactic for pulling the economy out of a crisis was - and is - based on the Keynesian notion of “priming the pump” by sending money that will employ lots of high-skilled, unionized labor - by building a new high-speed train line, for example. (Moi ici: Mesmo no olho do touro!!!)

Minsky, however, argued for a “bubble-up” approach, sending money to the poor and unskilled first. The government - or what he liked to call “Big Government” - should become the “employer of last resort,” he said, offering a job to anyone who wanted one at a set minimum wage. It would be paid to workers who would supply child care, clean streets, and provide services that would give taxpayers a visible return on their dollars. In being available to everyone, it would be even more ambitious than the New Deal, sharply reducing the welfare rolls by guaranteeing a job for anyone who was able to work. Such a program would not only help the poor and unskilled, he believed, but would put a floor beneath everyone else’s wages too, preventing salaries of more skilled workers from falling too precipitously, and sending benefits up the socioeconomic ladder."

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Eu, que só conheço Minsky dos postais de Steve Keen chamei a esse "floor beneath everyone else's" a "nova 'baseline' para a confiança no futuro."