Canários na mina

Há dias citei:

"A boa notícia é que vamos assistir à morte das empresas zombie dependentes de taxas de juro artificialmente baixas"

Agora, começo a reparar outros canários na mina.

Por exemplo, no FT de ontem em "The looming threat of fiscal crises" Martin Wolf escreve:

"It is unquestionable that public debt has reached high levels by past standards.

...

So, is public debt disaster looming? If so, will there be defaults, inflation, financial repression (forcible attempts to keep debt cheap), or some combination of all three? If none of these is to happen, what must be done?

...

If governments are going to avoid the risks of a debt explosion and are also not going to resort to surprise inflation or financial repression, they will have to tighten what are mostly still ultra-loose fiscal policies. But will they dare to do so in ageing societies, with slowly growing economies and expanding defence burdens?"

Por exemplo, no WSJ de ontem em "Interest Payments Are Walloping Government Budgets":

"The world spent the past decade-plus taking advantage of rock-bottom interest rates to binge on debt. An unprecedented bill is coming due.

Governments are expected to spend a net $2 trillion paying interest on their debt this year as higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive, up more than 10% from 2022, according to an analysis of International Monetary Fund data by research consulting firm Teal Insights and a separate analysis by Fitch Ratings. By 2027, it could top $3 trillion, Teal Insights says. The surge in interest costs leaves governments with difficult choices."

Como li há dias no Twitter, sempre que o PS "foge" do governo... é um sinal de que tempos negros se avizinham.