"This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth U.S.$9 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. For 9 out of 10 rail projects, passenger forecasts are overestimated; the average overestimation is 106%. For half of all road projects, the difference between actual and forecasted traffic is more than +20%. The result is substantial financial risks, which are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers to the detriment of social and economic welfare. Our data also show that forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied, despite claims to the contrary by forecasters. The causes of inaccuracy in forecasts are different for rail and road projects, with political causes playing a larger role for rail than for road."
Trecho retirado de "How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects? - The Case of Transportation" de Bent Flyvbjerg, Mette K. Skamris Holm, e Soren L. Buhl, publicado no Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 71, No. 2, Spring 2005.
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