Como é possível? (parte III)

E volto ao tema do "Como é possível?". 

Como é que a mentalidade matemática, ingenuamente carregada de certezas, domina o mundo empresarial?

Encontrei algumas respostas na introdução do livro "The Upside of Uncertainty" de Nathan Furr.

"Recall for a moment any big change you’ve experienced in your life, perhaps a new work project, career, geography, or relationship. What made it hard? What held you back? What tempted you not to make the change? The answer is uncertainty. Now consider that everything you really care about in your life came only after a period of uncertainty. Even now, behind every uncertainty you are facing—even the unwanted and unpromising varieties—insight, growth, and possibility are waiting in the wings. We are all wired to fear the downsides of uncertainty, but we forget that change, creation, transformation, and innovation rarely show up without some measure of it. In this book we invite you to consider that the only way to get to the possibilities you dream about is to navigate your way there through the treacherous realm of the unknown.

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When we talk about uncertainty in this book, we are referring to anything unknown, any ambiguous state where you may not even know what to pay attention to, let alone all the ways it could play out. Uncertainty is broader than just risk, even though people often use them interchangeably. But risk usually involves taking only a small chance on knowable outcomes.

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uncertainty has been rising steadily over recent decades

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Uncertainty is here to stay. Learning to face the unknown well is critical to our ability to survive and thrive. Numerous studies across academic fields suggest that people comfortable with uncertainty are more creative and are more successful as entrepreneurs and more effective as leaders. ... “The single biggest predictor of executive success is how you deal with ambiguity.”

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"If we can tolerate uncertainty, and even pursue scenarios in spite of it, we can develop an uncertainty ability—the skill to navigate unknowns both planned (such as starting a new venture or leaving a job) and unplanned (such as losing a job, experiencing a health crisis, or going through a relationship breakdown). The people we admire—the ones who do new and inventive things and those who respond nobly to tragedy—have our admiration precisely because they have developed a healthy relationship with uncertainty, increasing their possibility quotient, or the likelihood that they see and seize new opportunities."

Tolerar e até abraçar a incerteza não é fácil. Quem tem medo da incerteza refugia-se na falsa certeza matemática.

Quando olho para trás e procuro um momento de viragem na minha mentalidade, que me tenha ajudado a fugir à lógica matemática do "cost avoidance" em todas as situações, encontro algumas peças que se encaixaram:

• a leitura de “How we compete” de Suzanne Berger como referi em Uma das minhas inspirações iniciais; e
• a leitura de “The triple-A Supply Chain”, da autoria de Hau L. Lee, publicado pela Harvard Business Review em Outubro de 2004, e a a leitura de No artigo “Lean Consumption”, da autoria de James P. Womack e Daniel T. Jones, publicado pela Harvard Business Review em Março de 2005, ambas referidas em O regresso dos clientes.