"strategic success depends not so much on a singular commitment to a strategic insight as on the ability of leaders to adapt to events as they unfold.
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winning strategies often arise through an iterative process of formulating plans, experimenting, learning, and revising one’s approach in response to unexpected outcomes. Great strategies sometimes emerge over time with action, become clearer in the process, and then are “discovered.”
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Using discovery as an approach to strategy, or a whole-hearted embrace of pivoting, carries two dangers. One risk lies in abandoning a great strategy too soon.
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The other danger of pivoting lies in chasing fads, reorienting company investments and activities in response to the latest hot thing, only to discover that the initial promise was ephemeral. Surely not a good way to lead an organization!
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Firm performance comes from a variety of sources, and not all of them can be traced back to the firm’s strategy. While we have only one empirical record of performance, we have several or many plausible explanations, including strategy, industry or market effects, and random or idiosyncratic effects (luck). As all high school algebra students learn, there generally is no unique solution to a problem that has more unknowns than equations. With so many variables potentially affecting a firm’s performance, it is incredibly difficult to determine empirically if a firm has a successful strategy or not. As a result, it is impossible to draw any conclusions about the quality of a strategy by looking at short-run performance.
Instead, the firm’s performance record should be used to update our beliefs about the firm’s logic of success. Discovery comprises an essential part of strategic leadership because it is about learning or updating what we believe to be true."
Leio isto e recuo a 2007 e a "Estratégia, mapas errados e self-fulfilling prophecies":
“Strategic plans are a lot like maps. They animate people and they orient people. Once people begin to act, they generate tangible outcomes in some context, and this helps them discover what is occurring, what needs to be explained, and what should be done next. Managers keep forgetting that it is what they do, not what they plan that explains their success. They keep giving credit to the wrong thing – namely, the plan – and having made this error, they then spend more time planning and less time acting. They are astonished when more planning improves nothing.”
Trechos retirados de “Arguing for Organizational Advantage” de Sorensen, Jesper B.; Carroll, Glenn R.
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