Prof. Lero-Lero: "Eu tenho o vício de pensar em tudo". pic.twitter.com/i4fGPxsIMF— Telmo A Fernandes (@ordemespontanea) July 23, 2020
Ver isto, quando esta manhã tinha lido:
"We live in a world of radical uncertainty in which our understanding of the present is imperfect, our understanding of the future even more limited, and in which no one person or organisation can hold the range of information required to arrive at the ‘best explanation’. Narrative reasoning is the most powerful mechanism available for organising our imperfect knowledge. Understanding the complex world is a matter of constructing the best explanation – a narrative account – from a myriad of little details and the knowledge of context derived from personal experience and the experience of others.Sintomas de que nada de bom virá por aí. Preparem-se para mais uma vez terem de suster a respiração.
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There is no more salutary example of the need to ask ‘What is going on here?’, or of the wilful blindness which fails to look behind reported numbers. If it seems too good to be true, it generally is.
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Decision-making under radical uncertainty requires a multiplicity of skills, and rarely will all these skills be found in a single individual. Successful leaders have benefited from advisers who could assist in problem framing.
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Successful decision-making under uncertainty is a collaborative process. Having arrived at the best explanation, it is important to open that explanation to challenge and be ready to change the guiding narrative when new information emerges. The mistakes made by people who enjoyed the flattery of supportive sycophants"
Trechos retirados de “Radical Uncertainty” de John Kay e Mervyn King
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