O contexto tem muita força (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.

"strategic planning is a process that supports the creation of future value through the identification, definition, production, assessment and application of goals and resources, and by selecting or making one or more chosen market spaces
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The conventional view of strategic planning, with intellectual roots in neoclassical economics, focuses on working with “predictable” uncertainty, which includes supply, demand and internal process fluctuations (sometimes cyclical) largely resulting from competitive dynamics. Also included are macroeconomic and, increasingly, natural ecological factors that can be reasonably anticipated. 
In contrast, a socio-ecological view of strategic planning, with intellectual roots in systems theory and field theory, engages not only with predictable uncertainty but also with Knight's (1921) “unpredictable” uncertainty, including environmental jolts, unforeseen macro-level disruptions and “black swan” events. [Moi ici: Mais uma vez a força do contexto]
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conventional neoclassically based strategic planning construes uncertainty as commercial challenges to be surmounted through competitive moves, along one or more of four choice vectors - cost-quality, timing and know-how, entry barriers, and financial resources. This form of strategic planning assumes perfect rationality and equal access to information among the competitors. The arena of competition is viewed as the industry, which receives the bulk of the planner's attention, and profit maximization is seen as the goal of each competitor firm engaged in its autonomous strategic pursuits. A more nuanced rendering relaxes the assumptions of perfect rationality and equal information access by acknowledging the constraints of path dependence, as well as the exercise of power and knowledge asymmetries, heterogeneous dynamic capabilities, bounded rationality, behavioral biases, and the possibility of game-changing or “disruptive” innovation moves."

Trechos retirados de "Strategic Planning in Turbulent Environments: A Social Ecology Approach to Scenarios" de Rafael Ramírez e John W. Selsky, publicado por Long Range Planning em 2014.